,
12 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Things (I think) humanity can Survive v Not Survive
Not Survive:
Sufficiently large Large Igneous Province
Sufficiently large asteroid
Vacuum decay
Burn-it-ALL (12k GtC)
Survive but not very fun:
RCP 8.5
Nuclear war
Yellowstone-style eruption
Gamma-ray burst
Bad AI
Geomag storm
Not Survive:
Sufficiently large Large Igneous Province
Sufficiently large asteroid
Vacuum decay
Burn-it-ALL (12k GtC)
Survive but not very fun:
RCP 8.5
Nuclear war
Yellowstone-style eruption
Gamma-ray burst
Bad AI
Geomag storm
NB: I think "civilization" would collapse in every one of these scenarios with possible exceptions of bad AI and big geomagnetic storm
My reasons for "survive"
-RCP 8.5: Scattered, roving bands of hunter-gatherers living at high latitudes a few centuries from now seems like an adequate adaptation to Bad Climate Change
-RCP 8.5: Scattered, roving bands of hunter-gatherers living at high latitudes a few centuries from now seems like an adequate adaptation to Bad Climate Change
-Nuclear war: Chicxulub released ~10,000X energy of all nukes at height of Cold War. I think out of 7 billion humans at least a couple, somewhere, might have (EXTREMELY slim but nonzero) chance of hunkering down & surviving even Chicxulub-style event. Nukes a joke comparatively
-Bad AI: Most apocalyptic AI scenarios are abstract thought experiments championed by people outside the field of computer science that more closely resemble tech-ier Brothers Grimm fairy tales.
-Yellowstone:
-Gamma-ray burst: would only sterilize half the planet, big whoop
-Geomagnetic storm: Just a hiccup
-Geomagnetic storm: Just a hiccup
Now for "Not survive"
-Vacuum decay: Universe-as-we-know-it ends, so do humans.
-Vacuum decay: Universe-as-we-know-it ends, so do humans.
-big Large Igneous Province: LIPs=responsible for the worst mass extinctions in earth history--capable of driving EXTREME global warming, devastating volcanic winters, ozone destruction, heavy metal poisoning, ocean acidification & anoxia, acid rain, etc... & we couldnt stop it
-Big enough asteroid: If they're small enough, asteroids are (**IMHO**) somewhat overrated as agents of Armageddon. But an arbitrarily big asteroid=obviously bad.
-Burn-it-all: All conventional & non-conventional fossil fuels=~12,000 gigatons of carbon, which, if burned, might drive CO2 up to 5,000ppm (we're at very worrying 400 now) and make the planet hotter than in +400 mil yrs in only a few centuries. Bad.(Ref: nature.com/articles/ncomm…)
Thankfully I think this 👆is impossible. But things could still get VERY dicey. In summary: happy Sunday. End thread.
