, 7 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
Out now: Analysis of Jan Will and me on how the power balance in the EP was affected by the bazar of parties, i.e. parties switching their group affiliation in the EP or choosing which party group to join in the first place. /1
Main conclusions:

First, contrary to common wisdom, most of the new parties joined groups of the centre, not the EU-sceptic or populists groups. Biggest winner was the @RenewEurope. Most of the gains compared to old ALDE came from new 'entrepreneur parties' (@joseflentsch) /2
@RenewEurope @joseflentsch Second, the consolidation of EU-sceptic forces aimed for by Salvini, Bannon & Co. failed to materialize.

The new ID is effectively the old ENF, with the biggest move coming from the AfD. Only very few MEPs left the ECR for the more radical new ID group /3
@RenewEurope @joseflentsch Third, the centre party groups hold together.

Although they lost at the ballot box, S&D prevented any of its parties moving to RenewEurope and Macron, while the EPP retained – to much criticism especially from @rdanielkelemen – Fidesz in its ranks. /4
@RenewEurope @joseflentsch @rdanielkelemen The outcome of this bazar of parties influences the EP’s power balance in two ways:

For one, it changed the order in size of parties. For instance, @NicoSemsrott specifically joined the Greens/EFA to take them in size above the far-right ID. Size matters in the EP. /5
@RenewEurope @joseflentsch @rdanielkelemen @nicosemsrott For another, only the decisions of new parties + the additional switches created a theoretical ‘progressive majority’ of S&D, Renew Europe, Greens/EFA and GUE/NGL.

This majority was not tested on Timmermans, but might influence legislation, even if it is hard to put together /6
@RenewEurope @joseflentsch @rdanielkelemen @nicosemsrott Finally, more changes are on the horizon. #Brexit, if and when it happens, will reorder the size of the groups and take away the theoretical progressive majority.

Biggest open question still is whether the 14 Five Stars MEPs will join any group during the legislature. /ends
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