Thread by @nbashaw

I finally got around to diving into TikTok to understand what makes it, uh, tick :)

✍️ A few thoughts on how the network design could limit their growth:

The main feed in most social apps shows posts from people you follow.

TikTok instead focuses on “For You” which maybe is a bit personalized, but mostly feels like a global “trending posts” feed.

Because of this, the main goal is to get into that feed. So unlike instagram and snapchat, users mostly create content that is legible to any TikTok user (instead of making content mostly meant for friends).

This is great in the early days because it allows TikTok to easily create a compelling feed for new users with no friends on the app.

But there is a downside...

Apps that have a less centralized network structure (aka most users are not seeing the same feed) can grow to more diverse subcultures and friend groups. The utility grows with the size of the network.

(y-axis = value to users
x-axis = size of user base)

The more friends or people with the same niche interests as you join, and the more you get content on there that is unable to be created by anyone else, the more the value to the user can keep accelerating alongside user growth.

(Messaging apps are a very pure example of this)

With TikTok, the homogenized feed creates a flatter value curve. How many creators do they need to create a compelling “For You” feed? If everyone is viewing and creating for that feed, how much potential for variety and niche is there?

The value curve flattens out much sooner

At least, this is what I suspect! I have only been using the app for a couple days.

If the “for you” feed is less dominant than I suspect, or if TikTok is able to shift people out of it and into less homogenous feeds, then this curve will bend upwards.

Postscript:

I'm very curious to hear TikTok expert @TaylorLorenz's take on this.

Also, I got a lot of the ideas for this thread (especially the graphs above) by listening to @bgurley's excellent interview with @patrick_oshag investorfieldguide.com/gurley/

Also:

I forgot to mention the *upside* of the more homogenous feed design! If you can make it work, it can result in wild fast growth, because it's not limited by new users joining and creating content. Your same base of creators can serve 100's of millions of consumers.

Also:

I see @bthdonohue and @Connor liking these tweets, and it reminds me: very similar dynamic applies to Pinterest!