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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
"Most people aren’t actually paying $11 to fly — they may pay for seat assignments, bags, beer, lottery cards, etc."

onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-ceo-…

"An airplane is marginal cost with wings." Alfred Kahn, 1977.
An airline or other business can run growth experiments to discover the optimal mix of loss leader combined with cross selling and upselling. This will attract competitors willing to take a lesser return, which can make industry returns = opportunity cost of capital. Got a moat?
Airlines selling things like credit cards is a cross sell. I've yet to see lottery cards sold, but that too. More leg room is upsell. Every variation in the ordering process can be tested and retested in growth experiments. If a business today can't do this testing, it is toast.
Munger and Buffett have changed their minds about investing in airlines since I wrote this. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

The more current BRK view is that the airline industry has some pricing power. The dominance of airlines at some hubs is one change. finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-m…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"After the S&P 500's nearly 19% gain this year, the benchmark index is now trading near its fair value relative to interest rates, profitability as well as price-to-book valuations" Goldman. google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc… The tooth fairy has been making the same price-to-book argument.
When I read something like this:

"Traders are fully pricing a quarter-point cut at the July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting."

I imagine the meeting where this is decided by the "traders" (under a buttonwood tree?) and wonder why "investors" aren't invited?
Many macro predictions that attempt to time changes in the stock market are eventually right exactly once in a row. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Focusing on when to buy is vastly easier than guessing about when to sell, especially if your focus is on a specific actual business.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ Insane Clown Posse Strategy: "Dump all equities and load up on derivatives. Hide out in short-term government bonds until the coming storm recedes. ... and yet be prepared to jump into risk-parity quant strategies if the market keeps grinding higher." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ Howard Marks Strategy: investors should calibrate their exposure to risk using: “a continuum from 0 to 100, with 0 being completely out of the market and 100 being completely in using aggressive techniques like investing with borrowed money.” google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
3/ Charlie Munger Strategy: "If you buy a few great companies [at an attractive price], then you can sit on your ass. That's a good thing. We're partial to putting out large amounts of money where we won't have to make another decision."
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Simba: "Why has our movie delivered over $500M in revenue to Disney so quickly?"

Mufasa: "Preferential attachment causes power law distributions that rule everything around the entertainment business."

Simba: "Like Rza says?"

Mufasa: "Just like CREAM."

cnbc.com/2019/07/21/the…
Simba: "Why are Disney's margins higher in animated movies?"

Mufasa: "Because we aren't real. The living voice talent gets far less as a wholesale transfer price than they would on a screen."

Simba: "Nice! That avoids disputes like the one between Taylor and Scooter Braun."
Mufasa: "If people like Elon are right and artificial intelligence gets good enough, we will make a play to buy back the masters."

Simba: "Will Snoop Lion help us?"

Mufasa: "As Snoop triumphed over Suge Knight, so will we. No 360 deals for us with studios! Hakuna matata."
Read 3 tweets

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A few highbrow beers (although there's nothing *truly* highbrow on here) creep over into wineland, but that's sort of what you'd expect.
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No & Low Joe
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If you understand how systems work, you can begin to find potential reasons why the beer industry struggles with gaining respect & extending its market.

Traditional systems are full of inertia that keeps people thinking & acting the same way. No blame. Just the power of systems.
Beer is a rather traditional industry, thus there is going to be a ton of traditional thinking, ideas, & behaviors around attempting to fix beer.

It's no different than education or healthcare where we are constantly addressing the symptoms of a less than ideal industry.
Decreased volumes or sales are symptoms. Implement initiatives or campaigns to boost sales and eventually sales go down again. Industry gets stuck in the loop.

But experience would tell us to do exactly those initiatives and campaigns b/c we have to act fast!
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@stevekrouse
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#GreatAwakening #LightWarrior #Pedogate🇺🇸
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I am inspired to do a minor #Qanon summary from today; because holy shit... does this explain what I've been feeling this week. XD
Let's begin, shall we?

#2105

reddit.com/r/greatawakeni…

These people are stupid.
Their attempts will FAIL.
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<>Microchip is trolling HARD<>
/SHILL
#2106

realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/08/…

vault.fbi.gov/d1-release/d1-…
/
The post states it clearly and concisely: these people KNOWINGLY signed off on fraudulent evidence to illegally spy on American citizens in an attempt to undermine both an election and a sitting U.S. PRESIDENT. [TREASON]
#2107



#FLY[RR]FLY#
Desperate people do desperate things.
It is during this period of time that surveillance pays off.
When does a BIRD sing?
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/ We've seen the box. We've seen #Fly[]#Fly before. This isn't rocket science. Rod is a dirty songbird🐦.
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