Thread by @cppinvest

1/ Lots of speculation about Tesla’s strong share price recovery since the 6/3 low. $TSLAQ shares have basically doubled the performance of the SPY from 6/3 to yesterday. The speculation is that someone (an institution) is accumulating shares. I don’t think so.

2/ Tesla shares hit a secondary peak in terms of price for 2019 on 2/28 at approximately $320. When Musk isn’t tweeting fake buyouts or retaliating against whistleblowers or defaming graduate students, in other words the “normal periods,” TSLA trades about 7mm shares per day.

3/ Over the next 67 trading days to the low of $178 on 6/3, TSLA traded an average of 11.3mm shares per day. To put that in context, TSLA traded 760mm shares during that 67-day selloff or 3.5x it’s total outstanding share count.

4/ If you use free float (100mm-ish shares), during that 67-day selloff, TSLA turned its shareholder base over 7x. Seven times in 67 days this company got an entirely new shareholder base. Not literally of course, but you get the point.

5/ Most of the trading activity was during 2Q, so we’ll see those 13Fs in about a month. They will be interesting. But we don’t have to wait and can paint a picture now. It looks like this:

6/ During the periods of sharp selling, TSLA traded 2x its normal volume. During the rallies (yes, plural) within the 67-day selloff, the stock traded its normal 7mm shares per day. Here’s the chart:

7/ I would bet that the May 3rd equity deal was entirely flipped out in that month, which added to volume. Sell shares to be flipped, watch volume spike. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

8/ Sellers have just stopped. This was a one-way trade for the better part of three months. It will be interesting to see if the company’s biggest supporters have increased their stakes. We know the buying isn’t coming from insiders.

9/ For perspective, at its peak, Fidelity owned 24mm shares of TSLA. From the low on 6/3 to yesterday, 325mm shares have traded. That’s a lot of Fidelitys. I point this all out merely to suggest it is highly unlikely new institutions have stepped up.

10/ It’s not coming from other bulls either. It’s difficult to purchase shares in volume on a securities exchange when one manages no money. Some longs just don’t have the means to be players in this stock.

adviserinfo.sec.gov/Firm/170386

It is likely now as it has been before that inter-dealer activity made up most of this volume with some short covering.

It’s a never a slow summer with this stock, is it?

13F’s in August.