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Jean-Claude PIRIS
@piris_jc
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1)Let‘ us assume new British PM succeeds in a Brexit no deal. Afterwards, how long would it take to go back to close, stable and friendly relations between the U.K. and the EU? I would say closer to 15 years than to 10. The only sure bet would be uncertainty for a long period.
2) First, failed negotiation U.K./EU.
Second, postponement of Brexit for a few months asked and obtained from EU. Third, failure to get approval of H of Commons on no deal. Fourth, General Elections. Fifth A, if Tories/Brexit Party wins, no deal and long negotiations with EU
3) Fifth B, hung HoC. Long debates on principle and on question to be asked in referendum and new postponement of Brexit. After the referendum, assuming again the hypothesis that the current PM gets the no deal he wishes, long negotiations with EU.
4) In all cases, negotiations with EU would begin with three points: the Irish border issue/backstop, the payment of the UK’s debt to the EU and the legal guarantees to preserve the rights of all present expatriated EU citizens. Only after solving these questions, other issues...
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Jean-Claude PIRIS
@piris_jc
If U.K. still an EU member after 31 Oct, it will have the legal duty to nominate a candidate Commissioner. If it does not,the Commission can continue to work and decide legally (precedent Bangemann 1999). The U.K. will be brought to the EUCJ for violation of its obligation
1/ In other words, the fact that HMG would violate the EU Treaties by not nominating a candidate Commissioner would not make the U.K. a non member State.
2/ To know if UK would still be an EU State if the PM violated applicable domestic/constit laws by not asking a prorogation of article 50 delay would not be an issue of EU law and for the EU Court of Just but for British competent authorities including perhaps its Supreme Court
Read 3 tweets
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Jean-Claude PIRIS
@piris_jc
1/ It looks more and more obvious that Tories and Labour leaders first concerns and interests are much more with the survival of their political party than with those of their country and people. They don’t look to care about the negative political and economic effects of this.
2/ These effects are negative for the U.K., but also for the whole EUropean Union. Tories and Labour leaders control both the U.K. Government and Parliament. They both refuse another referendum and continue to talk about the future relations without taking realities into account.
3/ In these circumstances, while the same leaders are totally unable to convince the H of Commons accepting the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated with the EU, and are pretending to discover again usual unicorns about the future...what is the interest of the EU?
Read 4 tweets
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Jean-Claude PIRIS
@piris_jc
1)THREAD on CM 2. I listened to a Chatham debate on this « CM2». If I understand well, the partisans of the U.K. joining EEA introduce their case by saying U.K. after Brexit will not need to apply to accede EFTA (which has now 4 members: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Swiss).
2)This is because they think that U.K. will « remain » an EEA member after Brexit. This is legally incorrect.
Exit EU goes automatically with exit EEA.
3) They say that the U.K. will not be obliged to apply Free Movement of Persons because they pretend U.K. will (always?) use a safeguard clause (art 112 EEA), while that clause is supposed to be sectorial or regional and temporary and limited and ...has never been used.
Read 7 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU trying to digest this morning what exactly last night means for negotiations. Le Monde article below starts with words: « Another crazy day in Brexitland » /1
EU mood the morning after the night before is bittersweet. EU leaders glad to see rejection in parliament of no deal (+ there’s thinly-veiled Schadenfreude about Johnson’s defeat. The man who EU heard saying you just need more oomph and positive thinking to make a deal..)BUT /2
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
1) EU leaders sticking to their sombre tone at #Brexit summit. Not happy UK leaving
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3) Of course EU realises the deal may not pass through U.K. parliament but EU leaders today underlined, whatever happened, they would not fundamentally change the deal on offer. EU Commission President Juncker spelled this out particularly clearly
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
1) Again and again I’m struck by the chasm in thinking between leading MP’s on #Brexit and the viewpoint of EU leaders - and remember, if you want a deal, it takes two to tango
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
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