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Shadi Hamid
@shadihamid
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This debate confirms that Bernie, Warren & Buttigieg are on a different level. Clear top tier right there
Every time I watch Biden, I end up a bit confused and puzzled: how does anyone actually think this guy is the most "electable" of all the candidates?
I feel like Trump would destroy Biden in any face-to-face debate
Does anyone know why Michael Bennett is running? Asking for a friend
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Shadi Hamid
@shadihamid
Would a white Swedish male with Trump’s exact views be more of a threat to U.S. cultural cohesion than, say, a nonwhite Ghanaian with the views of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

I explore in my new @TheAtlantic piece: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
@TheAtlantic And as @SWGoldman reminds us (and as @DavidAFrench has written), if white Christians see the decline of Christianity as destroying American culture, then they're better off having *more* nonwhite immigration from Africa & Latin America, since more of them would be Christian
@TheAtlantic This is also one of the topics @dmarusic & I discuss in the first (ever!) episode of our new podcast "The Wisdom of Crowds"

Listen to the whole thing here: wisdomofcrowds.live/2019/08/01/hea…
Read 3 tweets
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Shadi Hamid
@shadihamid
My new podcast with @dmarusic is real! It's called "The Wisdom of Crowds." Here's the first (ever) episode 👇
wisdomofcrowds.live/2019/08/01/hea…
@dmarusic This is something of an experiment, so if you do get a chance to listen to me and @dmarusic, we'd love to hear any feedback on how to make the podcast better or things that you thought did or didn't work
@dmarusic Basically, we read the NYT piece on "peak podcast" (nytimes.com/2019/07/18/sty…) and we thought to ourselves, well, maybe we can confuse people by starting a podcast right *during* the precise over-oversaturation of the genre
Read 4 tweets
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Shadi Hamid
@shadihamid
1. The political science literature on moderates winning elections developed when moderates actually won elections. Key assumptions of that work—that the median voter is in the center, requiring ideological parties to moderate—no longer necessarily hold in national elections
2. As I discuss in my book Temptations of Power (books.google.com/books?id=7W7eA…), the natural constituencies of Socialists and Christian Democrats in Western Europe were inherently limited, requiring them to move to the "middle." So it's partly a question of population distribution
3. In polarized contexts—including the US (but also across Europe, India, Israel, Brazil, Indonesia)—there's the issue of voter "inelasticity," which basically means that even when ideological parties moderate, their opponents will still see them as ideological
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
The Democratic field is effectively #Biden, #Warren, #Sanders, #Harris, and #Buttigieg

#DemDebate2
To clarify, I'm going by poll averages over the past few months. I don't think the debates have materially changed the dynamics of the race or altered the top tier.
That said, I think Biden's recent downward drift and Warren's rise will continue.
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
Read 5 tweets
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SaraKateW
@SaraKateW
I’m watching S01E01 of Game of Thrones and there’d better be fisting.
This is some Dungeons and Dragons ass shit.
Jamie Lannister can get it.
Read 850 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Been dancing around this take because I *do* think Sanders can win (one of the more likely nominees IMO). But was time to write it because I think people are wimps and overcompensating for 2016:

#Actually, Bernie's polling isn't that good. 🔥🔥🔥

53eig.ht/2VhpcXB
Sanders is polling at ~20% nationally with ~100% name recognition. Slightly higher in NH but slightly worse in Iowa. Historically, candidates in a similar position don't have a great track record. (3 for 15 in winning nominations, or 20%).
Sanders's favorability/unfavorability ratings have varied a lot from poll to poll. But on average, they're in the upper-middle part of the pack, not at the top. Biden's negatives are lower and candidates like Buttigieg and Harris have better ratings adjusted for name recognition.
Read 5 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
So per @NBCNews, these are the latest fundraising rankings.
These are significant because #Warren is after #Sanders and #Harris in the polls where they rank 1st and 2nd (not counting Biden since he's not in) but her fundraising is below #Booker.
As these money rankings stay, Warren is in trouble for the debates like Castro and Gillibrand are because of the rules on how fundraising numbers = viability. Not making the debates would be terrible since #Warren & #Gillibrand are the most progressive & #Castro the only Latinx.
Also, these daily totals are averaged, but they aren't representative as a metric because all these candidates entered at different times & Sanders never stopped fundraising from 2016.
The question is, how much is no big donors hurting #Harris & #Warren?
Read 3 tweets

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