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Main finding of my research with @ukonward: after decades of liberalising politics there has been a sea change in attitudes. By a ratio of ~2-to-1 voters want a society based on more security, not more freedom #politicsofbelonging ukonward.com/thepoliticsofb…
It is true for every age group, every region, for Remain & Leave voters. This isn't just nostalgia: we find people are open to change, inc. greater gender equality, because they think the system is stacked against people like them. But they don't like the liberal change on offer.
What does this mean in terms of every day issues? Most people believe that the growth of cities and increasing numbers going to university have been bad for society, and that communities have become more segregated rather than more diverse.
They also believe that falling marriage rates reflect a decline in values, as opposed to greater freedom, and that globalisation, technological change and immigration have harmed ordinary people's lives, jobs and wages.
These views are most true of Con-switchers. The Tories risk losing ~5m voters if there was an election today: 3.8m to Brexit Party & 1.5m to LibDems. These voters are more security-focused than those who stayed loyal, as are the 1.1m who have left Lab for Brexit Party.
So the Conservatives have most to gain from embracing a #politicsofbelonging, but it means resisting the temptation to sing to the Tory choir about tax cuts and a small state, and giving potential Con-switchers the economic and cultural security they are looking for.
Finally, we found an alarming rise in support for authoritarian govt, esp among younger voters. A third (!) of under-35s think army rule is a good way to run a country, and there is broad support for the idea of a 'strong leader who does not have to bother with Parliament'.
These findings suggest that the common ground of British politics is nowhere near where liberal Westminster thinks it is. The first mainstream party to embrace these facts - without succumbing to populism - will have the best chance of winning the next election.
