Thread by @AndrewLRJackson

THREAD: one of Ireland’s top oil & gas lobbyists laments the misuse of climate science while misusing climate science.

The original article by said lobbyist, also published in @sundaybusiness: iooa.ie/ensuring-irela… @SCC_Ireland

So the CEO of oil & gas lobby group @OffshoreIreland wants a climate & energy debate giving greater regard to “real science, evidence and facts”? GREAT!

This is the CEO in question: irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/b…

Said CEO claims that during the debate regarding @bridsmithTD’s Climate Emergency Bill a “myth” was “peddled” about the % of fossil fuels that should be left in the ground to help address the climate crisis.

Here’s precisely what she wrote:

Where to begin?

First, the 80% figure isn’t from McGlade & Ekins’ 2015 paper.

It’s from a famous 2011 Carbon Tracker report (pic1) that inspired an even more famous 2012 @billmckibben article (pic2; & if you haven’t read that, pls STOP & read now! rollingstone.com/politics/polit…)

Here’s a great article by @edking_I about how Carbon Tracker’s seminal 2011 report changed the entire climate debate: climatechangenews.com/2015/08/18/ter…

So no, “keep 80% in the ground” isn’t a misrepresentation of a paper published 4 years later by McGlade & Ekins.

Secondly, watch what @OffshoreIreland’s CEO does with the numbers:

McGlade & Ekins distinguish between ‘reserves’ & ‘resources’ (pic).

Unburnable *current reserves* of oil & gas *for 2C* = relatively low for Europe per McG & E but it’s a v different story for overall resources!

When it comes to fossil fuel ‘resources’ in Europe, the following are unburnable per McGlade & Ekins *even with carbon capture & storage*:

• 99% of coal
• 72% of conventional gas
• 58% of conventional oil

Climate Emergency Bill related to exploration, so *resources* are in play.

CEO: “0.3% of the total global gas to be kept is in Europe” & “1% of the oil to be kept in the ground is in Europe”

McG & E: for 2C, 72% of Europe’s gas & 58% of its oil resource = unburnable even w/CCS.

Thirdly, saying that ”0.3% of the total global gas to be kept is in Europe” & “1% of the oil to be kept in the ground is in Europe” doesn’t tell us ANYTHING about what % of *Europe’s* oil and gas reserves should be kept in the ground!

Talk about “bamboozling” people with stats!

Fourthly, and most importantly, McGlade & Ekins’ paper was published in Jan 2015 & estimates the % of fossil fuels to be left in the ground for (only) a >50% chance of keeping the global average temperature increase below 2C.

Yes: 2C, the old “safe” limit.

So McGlade & Ekins’ Jan 2015 paper was published *before* the Paris Agreement settled in Dec 2015 on a new global temperature goal: staying “well below” 2C & striving to limit temp increase to 1.5C, based on an updated understanding of climate risks from the IPCC.

WHY was the temp limit lowered from 2C to 1.5C? Here’s why, from the IPCC’s AR5 (pic1), updated last year in its Special Report on 1.5C (pic2).

Summary: an increase of 2C is highly dangerous, highly damaging & infringes fundamental rights. (Spoiler: 1.5C is very bad news too.)

And there’s more!

The blue line here shows the temperature range within which human life has flourished over the past 10,000 years.

The Paris Agreement range of 1.5-2C is shown in grey.

You’ll see estimates of various tipping elements, which may prove underestimates.

So @OffshoreIreland says it wants a debate based on “real science, evidence and facts” yet bamboozles with stats from a paper that’s based on only a >50% chance of staying below very dangerous 2C, which is not the global goal under the Paris Agreement!

A question for @OffshoreIreland: what % of fossil fuels should be left in the ground to hold the global average temperature increase to *1.5C*?

Here’s a recent peer-reviewed paper regarding Ireland’s fair share of the remaining global carbon budget: link.springer.com/article/10.100…

As one of the authors, @autofac, wrote recently:

“the only plausible global effect of additional [fossil fuel] resource development (anywhere!) is additional future global CO2 emissions....” [cont.]

He continues ”Unless you think someone else - with an already developed resource - will spontaneously ‘keep it in the ground’ just in order to facilitate our extraction.”

It wld be great to hear yr response to this, @OffshoreIreland - which country will “keep it in the ground”?

Interestingly, McGlade & Ekins make a similar point in their 2015 paper!

Further, here is a 2018 analysis by leading scientists in the field that concludes that there is “no credible case” to be made for the policies @OffshoreIreland lobbies to achieve:

stopclimatechaos.ie/download/pdf/i…

In my experience public interest “campaigners” are not out to “bamboozle” anyone with “rhetoric” & do not try to “blind” anyone with “erroneous statistics”.

In contrast, fossil fuel lobbyists consistently lobby in favour of the private interests they represent.

Meanwhile...END/