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If there’s one thing I still can’t grasp after all this time, it’s how so many clever people, who can and do analyse British and international politics so cogently and insightfully, so fundamentally misunderstand every single aspect of the European Union.
They misunderstand its purpose. They misunderstand its politics. They misunderstand its priorities. Even when they are shown to be wrong, time and again, they simply dig deeper into their mental bunkers and insist more fervently than ever on their misunderstanding.
They swore that the EU would carve up the single market. We could ditch free movement of people and keep everything else, and the German car manufacturers would rise up if Brussels protested. They repeatedly promised the moment would come. It never did.
They swore EU would buckle when it came to the backstop. It was inconceivable that the needs and interests of Ireland could ever compete with the clout and ambition of the mighty UK. But the moment of EU submission never came. The backstop was insisted upon. The backstop remains.
Now they swear that UK needs to ‘show EU we’re serious about no-deal so EU caves on the deal’. Never mind the pantomime stupidity - they can hear us reassure ourselves it’s just a bluff - it again misunderstands everything.
For Brussels it is quite simple. EU is more important than UK. Ireland is more important than UK. EU solidarity is more important than a Brexit deal. They are not going to budge on anything they determine to be existential. They never were. They never did. They never will.
Perhaps one day we will begin to comprehend the organisation we have helped shape over 46 years. Perhaps we will recognise its power and interests, and our own within it. Perhaps we will begin to understand and appreciate it before we leave it and realise how much we have lost.
