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So here’s trade-off we’ve been discussing for weeks. If Johnson goes for no-deal in manifesto, Farage rolls over but there’s a genuine cross-party effort to oppose them. Labour, LD supporters urged to hold noses to vote for whichever candidate can stop medicine shortages.
There’s also a long campaign in which all Opposition parties will sing from same hymn sheet, nailing lines on Yellowhammer, Trump, evidence from actual doctors, farmers, car manufacturers on damage of no-deal. Only a third of public support no-deal now. How many will after that?
This won’t be a people versus parliament election. It will be the people versus themselves.
All the evidence will point to disaster and on the other side all Johnson will have is hope, optimism and accusations of Project Fear countered by official reports compiled by his own government.
Johnson will face regular questions about how long UK could be expected to endure no-deal and why EU would budge on any of its red lines from a position of maximum leverage. Media is overly compliant and Boris-friendly but they’re not Pravda. Over 6 weeks it’ll sink in to public.
But, there’s the Corbyn problem on the other side. We have to accept the right-wing media’s success in painting conventional continental-style social democracy as terrifying Maoism. Tories will also hammer and exploit anti-semitism lines for all they’re worth.
People who are very cautious of Labour will be forced to make big and uncomfortable choices, and we can’t rely on them to go for Labour even though we might wish them to.
And then really sick part. We’ll have to confront people with chronic illnesses and give them honest truth. You may hate Corbyn, but if you don’t vote for him you may not get your medication. This is obscene politics and should never even be contemplated. But it’s where we are.
The Tories would be standing on a platform of no-deal, and the government’s own reports suggest that could mean people dying. It is unfathomable that we should be in the position where people are literally having to vote for their survival. But this is where the country now is.
