Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

On Xi’s orders: Reuters reported that Carrie Lam, the chief executive of HK, said she has caused “unforgivable havoc” & would quit if she had a choice. She has “very limited” room to resolve things as Beijing is calling the shots.

But, per Reuters, “Lam suggested that Beijing had not yet reached a turning point. She said Beijing had not imposed any deadline for ending the crisis…And she said China had “absolutely no plan” to deploy People’s Liberation Army troops on Hong Kong streets”.

Staying China’s hand, Lam said, is concern for the “huge” impact it would have on the country’s international profile: “It has taken China a long time to build up to that sort of international profile and to have some say…so to forsake all [that] is clearly not on their agenda.”

But it’s not clear what favours current HK police tactics are doing for China’s “international profile”. Per @amnesty, “horrifying scenes” at a HK metro station showed HK police “used batons to repeatedly beat people posing no threat whatsoever”.

Naughty Boris: Boris Johnson has suspended the British Parliament for five weeks. This effectively reduces the time MPs have to prevent a No Deal Brexit from eight weeks to three. The contentious move has drawn high profile legal challenges and protests across the UK.

.@A_Sloat explained Johnson’s two rationales: (i) he “believes [it] will strengthen his bargaining position with the EU…If Brussels believes that Parliament cannot prevent Johnson from delivering a no-deal Brexit, he hopes EU leaders will be more willing to make concessions”. &

(ii) “Johnson appears to be daring the opposition to…force early elections” – which may improve his parliamentary arithmetic. He’d frame an election as a “people vs parliament” contest, arguing that he wants to implement the 2016 referendum but faces an obstructive legislature.

Per CNN,” Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the center-left opposition Democratic Party (PD) agreed on Wednesday to form a new coalition government & avoid snap elections” – though significant details remain to be finalised.

Stratfor argued that the new coalition “has delayed prospects of an early general election for at least a few months. [It also] means that the [far right] League party…will not soon ascend to power, reducing the likelihood of an Italian exit from the eurozone”.

.@brunello_rosa noted that the new coalition “would initially be very fragile”, as Conte will face strong political & social opposition, as well as a difficult economic conditions. But “the ship does not necessarily need to sink if [they] do not fight too much amongst themselves.

Three thought-provoking articles:

.@CliffordDMay argued that “at this point, wouldn’t it be inspiring if U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres were to propose a free and fair vote [in Hong Kong] so that Hong Kongers could exercise their acknowledged human right to self-determination?”

“Not for a minute do I kid myself that Mr. Xi will actually decide to respect the rights of the people of HK. But if a proposal for a plebiscite were to become part of the debate, he would save face by merely strategically retreating to the “one country, two systems” pledge”.

He continued, “The converse also is true: If the West meekly accepts the PRC’s subjugation of Hong Kong – as we have meekly accepted Chinese communist subjugation of Xinjiang & Tibet, [then] Mr. Xi may be encouraged to next seize the free & democratic nation of Taiwan.

Robert Blackwill & Ashley Tellis argued that “the logic of the U.S.-Indian partnership remains misunderstood by many, especially in the US”. The aim is not to turn India into a close ally, formal or otherwise – those pursuing this path will “come to grief”.

The aim is to sustain “a balance of power that favors freedom” in Asia. For this, it will be sufficient for the US to help India transition to becoming a major power – so it can balance China. A strong India is in Washington’s interests, even if it will sometimes go its own way.

“Washington & New Delhi should remember that their most pressing objective by far is not to agree on trade or Iran or Russia; it is to cope with the power of a rising China”. Achieving this “will be more than worth all the inevitable disagreements on other issues”.

.@stephenWalt argued that “declaring total victory over a movement like the Islamic State is like declaring victory over winter as soon as the last snowfall ends. Such declarations pander to our natural desire to put troublesome problems in the rearview mirror” and…

…he continued, “politicians like Trump are inevitably tempted to claim credit for them. But such claims mislead in two ways: 1) They exaggerate the danger that the Islamic State once posed, and 2) they overstate the degree to which that (modest) danger has ended.”

Three events to watch in the near future:

US-China relationship hardening: @jonathanvswan reported that “based on numerous conversations with Trump admin officials… it is clear that many of the President's top advisers view China first & foremost as a national security threat rather than as an economic partner”.

Swan continued: “This is a new normal. And it's poised to affect huge parts of American life, from the cost of many consumer goods — likely to go up under a punishing new round of tariffs — to the nature of this country's relationship with the government of Taiwan”.

Iran Nuclear deadline: per Stratfor “Sept. 6 is the next Tehran-issued deadline for Iran to increase its nuclear activities. If Iran shows restraint, then a de-escalation path looks more viable. At the same time, we have to watch for any spoilers”.

Stratfor continued, those spoilers could include: (i) Israel seeing the lead-up to the US 2020 election as a potential closing window of opportunity to maximize pressure on Iran (ii) an impending confrontation between Israel & Hezbollah (iii) Israel-Iran skirmishes in Iraq.

Merkel goes to China: Merkel will travel with German CEOs to strengthen German-Chinese business ties. The trip may signal a softening in the EU’s supposed tough & united position on China – the high point of which was an EU Commission paper calling China a “systemic rival”.

But, per @noahbarkin, “in truth, the tougher European front on China has always looked fragile” – with Italy, Greece, & others not on board. Now amidst a German economic slowdown Merkel may may be softening Germany’s stance to avoid more economic damage.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking retweeting, and spreading the word. We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors