Thread by @mmildenberger

Fellow Canadians (and folks who care about our climate!) We've just released new data on what Canadians in every riding think about climate change. tldr: Canadians REALLY want to see gvt climate policy, including in Andrew Scheer's riding. THREAD 1/
umontreal.ca/climat/engl/in…

Our data (work is joint with @erickUdeM) shows the road to majority or minority gvt goes mostly through ridings where Canadians are worried about climate change and want gvt action. FYI: you can also explore our online tool here for yourself: umontreal.ca/climat/engl/in… 2/

Get ready for a bunch of maps! First, let's start with whether Canadians believe climate change is happening. Yes! In every single riding - even the most Conservative ridings in the country. Values range from 93% in the riding of Halifax to 60% in Souris-Moose Mountain 3/

What about whether Canadians already think their provinces have felt the impacts of climate change? Again, yes! Quebecers in particular feel their province has been impacted by climate change 4/

Many Canadians also think climate change is going to hurt them personally. In all but 59 ridings (83%), more Canadians than not think they will PERSONALLY be harmed by climate change than don't. Highest net values are over +30 in many Montreal-area ridings 5/

Really extreme levels of disbelief that climate change will harm respondents personally are in ridings like Fort McMurray-Coldlake (-43 percentage points) - even though the community of Fort McMurray has suffered from climate change worse than most 6/ macleans.ca/society/scienc…

What about climate policy? Again a majority in every single riding support a carbon price implemented through a cap and trade system. Cap and trade is one of the ways in which governments can set a carbon price to make polluters pay for the pollution they cause 7/

And carbon taxes, the basis for current government's climate plan, are still quite popular in Canada, including in the places (e.g. BC) that have had them the longest. There is plurality support for carbon taxes in 88% of Canadian ridings and outright majority support in 80% 8/

And the places where carbon taxation is underwater? These are mostly ridings in the West that are already in Conservative hands. In most other ridings we are seeing 45% or more support, with opposition much lower. Hard to see path to gvt just from opposing carbon taxation 9/

What about politicians opposed to climate action? For example, what do people in Andrew Scheer's Regina-area riding think about carbon taxation? They support it by a 53% to 41% margin. Our data suggests Scheer is off base with his own voters 10/

The same could be said of Doug Ford. His provincial riding lines up with the federal riding of Etobicoke North. Ford's constituents STRONGLY support cap and trade and carbon taxes. By eliminating one and trying to block the other, he's also way offside with his constituents 11/

Where do these data come from? Recent statistical and political science models that are well-validated. You can read all about the method we use here, if you really want :P 12/

journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…

There is lots more here that you can explore using our online the tool. Find out what your riding thinks! Credit also to @peterdhowe @mudfire and Xinran Wang who have been a big part of developing and validating these model estimates with us. umontreal.ca/climat/engl/in… /FIN