Thread by @mmildenberger

SHORT THREAD: Climate change is happening. It's signature is all over our lives. Will this reshape the politics of climate change? My new open-access review with @peterdhowe, @mudfire, and Brittany Shield in ERL surveys what we know and don't 1/
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

Do climate experiences change shape climate opinions? Contrary to many advocates' hope, there is mixed evidence that extreme weather shapes climate beliefs. Some evidence that very local experiences have short-term effect - but little evidence for durable over-time effects 2/

In part, this is a tough question to answer because the literature has methodological, measurement and conceptual inconsistencies (which we detail in the review for those interested). Another limit is focus on attitudes and behavioral intentions, rather than behavior itself 3/

The good news: some of the strongest papers methodologically do find an effect. I particularly like this recent piece by @cwarshaw and @ParrishB in Journal of Politics. They find modest relationship between state-level temps and opinion. 4/

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/70…

What does this mean for climate advocacy? Experience with climate change is unlikely to automatically disrupt climate beliefs. Advocates will have to redouble their efforts to help communities understand their stories as linked to climate change. 5/5