Thread by @sundersays

Since govt is not having a great deal of luck, maybe this could work, but there are at least three ways this could fail spectacularly ...

https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1169720609095462913

1. Oppo votes (embarassingly) for confidence in Johnson, 340-298. Forces him to extend on eg 19 Oct. Votes no confidence in him on 20 Oct.

2. Oppo votes No Conf so it is 640-0. Worst ever govt defeat! But puts another PM in next day/within 2 weeks. Extend.
Pick GE date.

3. Govt abstains on confidence, hoping to lose. But so does opposition. It is nil-nil. Or 20 opposition MPs vote for. 20-0. Does not get an election.

Or if works, govt votes no conf in itself. 14 days ends during prorogation. Election is on. PM must win or has to extend on 19/10

If govt could get a no conf vote through on Monday 9th, the right to call the election would come up from Monday 23rd Sept (with dissolution during prorogation) once 14 day elapse?

What is then the earliest legal election date possible?

By law, PM has to extend on Oct 19th!

If the govt managed to no.confidenced itself - then couldn't get a date that meant it could hold it before the summit, and got a date that meant it was legally necessary to extend A50 halfway through the campaign - that would be an omnishambles to make this week look competent.

Half-baked strategy more likely to fail by a new administration coming in on Tuesday/Wednesday, dismissing Boris Johnson, than fiasco of extending during his election (or breaking law with refusal to extend mid-election).

But I think Commons will want to still be sitting on Oct 19th, which would give them the option of sacking Boris Johnson (political sanction; via two confidence votes) as well as exploring legal sanctions, if he decides to ignore/break law. Lots of ways to ensure that.