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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Since govt is not having a great deal of luck, maybe this could work, but there are at least three ways this could fail spectacularly ...
1. Oppo votes (embarassingly) for confidence in Johnson, 340-298. Forces him to extend on eg 19 Oct. Votes no confidence in him on 20 Oct.

2. Oppo votes No Conf so it is 640-0. Worst ever govt defeat! But puts another PM in next day/within 2 weeks. Extend.
Pick GE date.
3. Govt abstains on confidence, hoping to lose. But so does opposition. It is nil-nil. Or 20 opposition MPs vote for. 20-0. Does not get an election.

Or if works, govt votes no conf in itself. 14 days ends during prorogation. Election is on. PM must win or has to extend on 19/10
If govt could get a no conf vote through on Monday 9th, the right to call the election would come up from Monday 23rd Sept (with dissolution during prorogation) once 14 day elapse?

What is then the earliest legal election date possible?

By law, PM has to extend on Oct 19th!
If the govt managed to no.confidenced itself - then couldn't get a date that meant it could hold it before the summit, and got a date that meant it was legally necessary to extend A50 halfway through the campaign - that would be an omnishambles to make this week look competent.
Half-baked strategy more likely to fail by a new administration coming in on Tuesday/Wednesday, dismissing Boris Johnson, than fiasco of extending during his election (or breaking law with refusal to extend mid-election).
But I think Commons will want to still be sitting on Oct 19th, which would give them the option of sacking Boris Johnson (political sanction; via two confidence votes) as well as exploring legal sanctions, if he decides to ignore/break law. Lots of ways to ensure that.
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
This is a sensible move from Corbyn.
1) call no confidence vote if it can be won
2) that a Labour minority govt would aim only to extend Article 50 & call an election.
Tricky to get the votes for (1)

(2) is obviously much harder for (ex)-Cons & LDs

In any plan that needs a new govt before an election, this is almost certainly the only option that could become viable. (Unless Corbyn himself supports another PM)
My view is that if defecting Cons + LibDens could threaten to put a minority Corbyn administration in (purely for extend & election), they would not have to do it.

- that is the one alt govt threat to which Johnson would have to accede (by extending A50 beyond the election).
Read 12 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
"I suppose this comment will be considered a racist aside" writes Rod Liddle.
But I suppose that this must not have been considered a racist aside by the sub-editors or editors of the Sunday Times, comment pages of the year.
Ht to @NosheenIqbal

Read 10 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
Watching the election results?
Some numbers to watch out for.

1. How many votes?

> 38.5% (2004) for UK Euros record.

16.45m (36%) votes in Euros 2014
30.7m (65%) in 2015GE
32.2m (69%) in 2017GE
33.6m (72%) in 2016 EU referendum
2. How low could Conservatives go?

Below 15.7% (Gordon Brown, Labour 2009) would be lowest ever share by UK governing party in Euro Elections.

23.1% (2014) is worst previous Cons score. Governing parties have gone +13% between Euro election & next GE in last 3 cycles
3. Has Nigel Farage broadened his appeal?

He could win two European Elections in a row, with different parties. Higher share than Ukip 26% in 2014 would show Brexit Party goes broader.

Could win in Wales (Ukip 27.5% to Lab 28%) & get > 20% in London (ukip 16%) & Scotland (10%)
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