1) call no confidence vote if it can be won
2) that a Labour minority govt would aim only to extend Article 50 & call an election.
(2) is obviously much harder for (ex)-Cons & LDs
In any plan that needs a new govt before an election, this is almost certainly the only option that could become viable. (Unless Corbyn himself supports another PM)
- that is the one alt govt threat to which Johnson would have to accede (by extending A50 beyond the election).
If so, all alternative government (VONC+) strategies are out.
That would leave only two routes?
2) persuading gvt to propose a deal before 31/10
3) efforts to seize timetable/legislate to force to seek an extension, beyond GE
- a Corbyn caretaker admin is worse than no deal Brexit in a forced choice
- they would support an interim gvt doing exactly what LOTO proposes, but only if not led by LOTO, *but* with the support of LOTO
(It would be a difficult threat to make. But it would succeed without being carried out)
The scenario where a GE happens, is a hung parliament & that is offer to put Lab in. (May be most likely if Lab-led gvt is just viable, but Lab is 2nd, not 1st)
Legislate Forced Extension is the focus.
If that fails, VONC for Caretaker Corbyn or No Deal Brexit forced choice dilemma would become central
Not sure anything will be settled by October 14th.
The crisis may be postponed by this 4-dimensional game of Brexit Chicken all the way into the final fortnight before 31.10.19