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This is a sensible move from Corbyn.
1) call no confidence vote if it can be won
2) that a Labour minority govt would aim only to extend Article 50 & call an election.
1) call no confidence vote if it can be won
2) that a Labour minority govt would aim only to extend Article 50 & call an election.
Tricky to get the votes for (1)
(2) is obviously much harder for (ex)-Cons & LDs
In any plan that needs a new govt before an election, this is almost certainly the only option that could become viable. (Unless Corbyn himself supports another PM)
(2) is obviously much harder for (ex)-Cons & LDs
In any plan that needs a new govt before an election, this is almost certainly the only option that could become viable. (Unless Corbyn himself supports another PM)
My view is that if defecting Cons + LibDens could threaten to put a minority Corbyn administration in (purely for extend & election), they would not have to do it.
- that is the one alt govt threat to which Johnson would have to accede (by extending A50 beyond the election).
- that is the one alt govt threat to which Johnson would have to accede (by extending A50 beyond the election).
But the odds are that they will not do that.
If so, all alternative government (VONC+) strategies are out.
That would leave only two routes?
2) persuading gvt to propose a deal before 31/10
3) efforts to seize timetable/legislate to force to seek an extension, beyond GE
If so, all alternative government (VONC+) strategies are out.
That would leave only two routes?
2) persuading gvt to propose a deal before 31/10
3) efforts to seize timetable/legislate to force to seek an extension, beyond GE
* This is Meat Loaf Remainerism from the LDs in particular
It means
- a Corbyn caretaker admin is worse than no deal Brexit in a forced choice
- they would support an interim gvt doing exactly what LOTO proposes, but only if not led by LOTO, *but* with the support of LOTO
It means
- a Corbyn caretaker admin is worse than no deal Brexit in a forced choice
- they would support an interim gvt doing exactly what LOTO proposes, but only if not led by LOTO, *but* with the support of LOTO
One of these threats (AN Other PM) is welcome to Boris Johnson's election narrative. The other is a risk he would simply not take.
(It would be a difficult threat to make. But it would succeed without being carried out)
(It would be a difficult threat to make. But it would succeed without being carried out)
One final twist. One scenario where those forces who want an alt PM, but not Corbyn, might prevail & get his head.
The scenario where a GE happens, is a hung parliament & that is offer to put Lab in. (May be most likely if Lab-led gvt is just viable, but Lab is 2nd, not 1st)
The scenario where a GE happens, is a hung parliament & that is offer to put Lab in. (May be most likely if Lab-led gvt is just viable, but Lab is 2nd, not 1st)
In meantime, as others point out, the No Confidence route is less likely effort. (Because of Corbyn/not-Corbyn conundrum & stalemate).
Legislate Forced Extension is the focus.
If that fails, VONC for Caretaker Corbyn or No Deal Brexit forced choice dilemma would become central
Legislate Forced Extension is the focus.
If that fails, VONC for Caretaker Corbyn or No Deal Brexit forced choice dilemma would become central
My guess would be that we might all still be guessing for the next 8 weeks.
Not sure anything will be settled by October 14th.
The crisis may be postponed by this 4-dimensional game of Brexit Chicken all the way into the final fortnight before 31.10.19
Not sure anything will be settled by October 14th.
The crisis may be postponed by this 4-dimensional game of Brexit Chicken all the way into the final fortnight before 31.10.19
Paul Mason on Corbyn: the view of an insider-participant on one flank of the argument inside team Corbyn
Labour has come out of these August skirmishes having shifted the Greens and the LibDems, who struggled. SNP handled it more deftly, in a low drama way, that was also quietly good for Labour. That doesnt resolve the dilemmas but it was astute politics
It has become unusual for Labour to try to make some of the political weather - esp on Brexit - rather than changing the subject. This showed more confidence in the pitch and position they are evolving towards.
