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Watching the election results?
Some numbers to watch out for.
1. How many votes?
> 38.5% (2004) for UK Euros record.
16.45m (36%) votes in Euros 2014
30.7m (65%) in 2015GE
32.2m (69%) in 2017GE
33.6m (72%) in 2016 EU referendum
Some numbers to watch out for.
1. How many votes?
> 38.5% (2004) for UK Euros record.
16.45m (36%) votes in Euros 2014
30.7m (65%) in 2015GE
32.2m (69%) in 2017GE
33.6m (72%) in 2016 EU referendum
2. How low could Conservatives go?
Below 15.7% (Gordon Brown, Labour 2009) would be lowest ever share by UK governing party in Euro Elections.
23.1% (2014) is worst previous Cons score. Governing parties have gone +13% between Euro election & next GE in last 3 cycles
Below 15.7% (Gordon Brown, Labour 2009) would be lowest ever share by UK governing party in Euro Elections.
23.1% (2014) is worst previous Cons score. Governing parties have gone +13% between Euro election & next GE in last 3 cycles
3. Has Nigel Farage broadened his appeal?
He could win two European Elections in a row, with different parties. Higher share than Ukip 26% in 2014 would show Brexit Party goes broader.
Could win in Wales (Ukip 27.5% to Lab 28%) & get > 20% in London (ukip 16%) & Scotland (10%)
He could win two European Elections in a row, with different parties. Higher share than Ukip 26% in 2014 would show Brexit Party goes broader.
Could win in Wales (Ukip 27.5% to Lab 28%) & get > 20% in London (ukip 16%) & Scotland (10%)
4. Record vote share?
48.6% (Thatcher 1979, a month after the General Election) and 42.6% (Labour 1994, under acting leader Margaret Beckett) are highest %
William Hague's 33.5% (1999) is the highest Euros % of any party since the switch to PR that year - and might be hit.
48.6% (Thatcher 1979, a month after the General Election) and 42.6% (Labour 1994, under acting leader Margaret Beckett) are highest %
William Hague's 33.5% (1999) is the highest Euros % of any party since the switch to PR that year - and might be hit.
5. Labour hasn't won the Euro elections since 1999
24% in 2014 was Labour's worst % in Opposition. The first time Her Majesty's Opposition had not topped Euros poll since 1984.
Leading Opposition party has always finished 1st or 2nd (1979, 1984, 2014) & never below 2nd place.
24% in 2014 was Labour's worst % in Opposition. The first time Her Majesty's Opposition had not topped Euros poll since 1984.
Leading Opposition party has always finished 1st or 2nd (1979, 1984, 2014) & never below 2nd place.
6. Record LibDem performance?
The LibDems have always seemed to poll badly in previous PR elections.
So 14.4% in 2004 (12 seats/78) is their best post-1999 result, along with 13.3% (11 seats/72) in 2009.
Best ever vote was 18.5% (but 0 seats) for the Alliance in 1984.
The LibDems have always seemed to poll badly in previous PR elections.
So 14.4% in 2004 (12 seats/78) is their best post-1999 result, along with 13.3% (11 seats/72) in 2009.
Best ever vote was 18.5% (but 0 seats) for the Alliance in 1984.
7. Can Ukip hold any seats?
Won 24 seats in 2014 on 26.6% but just 3 MEPs remain with Ukip.
East of England may be strongest region but is 9% in reach?
Gerard Batten would need 8-9% in London to be re-elected, before decides whether to stand in imminent UKIP leader contest
Won 24 seats in 2014 on 26.6% but just 3 MEPs remain with Ukip.
East of England may be strongest region but is 9% in reach?
Gerard Batten would need 8-9% in London to be re-elected, before decides whether to stand in imminent UKIP leader contest
8. Record Green performance?
Highest share:
15% in 1989 (but no seats)
7.8% (2009) best under PR post-99
Most seats:
3 in 2014 (7%)
(2 seats from 1999, in 2004 & 2009)
Highest share:
15% in 1989 (but no seats)
7.8% (2009) best under PR post-99
Most seats:
3 in 2014 (7%)
(2 seats from 1999, in 2004 & 2009)
9. Will more Scots vote?
Record Scottish turnout in Euro elections if just 34% vote.
Scotland Euros turnout (UK)
2014: 33.5% (35.6%)
2009: 28.5% (34.7%)
2004: 30.6% (38.5%)
1999: 24.7% (24.0%)
29% is peak party % (post-1999)
SNP 2014, 2009; Labour 1999
Record Scottish turnout in Euro elections if just 34% vote.
Scotland Euros turnout (UK)
2014: 33.5% (35.6%)
2009: 28.5% (34.7%)
2004: 30.6% (38.5%)
1999: 24.7% (24.0%)
29% is peak party % (post-1999)
SNP 2014, 2009; Labour 1999
10. Could Change UK win a seat?
Decision to compete, not cooperate, seems to have backfired for the new party.
Gavin Esler in London and ex-Tory MEP Richard Ashworth had the best prospects, facing lower thresholds in more favourable regions, if they could get over 8%
Decision to compete, not cooperate, seems to have backfired for the new party.
Gavin Esler in London and ex-Tory MEP Richard Ashworth had the best prospects, facing lower thresholds in more favourable regions, if they could get over 8%
11. Could Tommy Robinson spring a surprise?
Independent candidate in north-west needs to emulate 8% won by Nick Griffin of BNP in same region, 2009 to get in.
Bookmakers/betting exchanges suggest 1/3 chance, prob inflated by supporters having a flutter
Independent candidate in north-west needs to emulate 8% won by Nick Griffin of BNP in same region, 2009 to get in.
Bookmakers/betting exchanges suggest 1/3 chance, prob inflated by supporters having a flutter
12. Remain vs Leave
It isn't a proxy referendum, even if it feels like one.
Is the contest ....
Pro-Remain
(LD+Grn+Chuk+SNP/PC)
Vs
Clean Brexit
(Brexit/Ukip)
Or is it ...
Remain parties
Vs/and
Soften Deal? (Lab)
Govt Deal (Cons)
Vs/and
Harden/WTO Brexit
?
It isn't a proxy referendum, even if it feels like one.
Is the contest ....
Pro-Remain
(LD+Grn+Chuk+SNP/PC)
Vs
Clean Brexit
(Brexit/Ukip)
Or is it ...
Remain parties
Vs/and
Soften Deal? (Lab)
Govt Deal (Cons)
Vs/and
Harden/WTO Brexit
?
* Most Labour 2019 voters will be 2016 Remainers
* over half Cons 2019 voters likely to be 2016 remainers (mostly pro-deal over new referendum) alongside some 2016 leavers (mostly pro-deal, over no deal) & party loyalists
* a sizeable minority of SNP voters will be pro-Brexit
* over half Cons 2019 voters likely to be 2016 remainers (mostly pro-deal over new referendum) alongside some 2016 leavers (mostly pro-deal, over no deal) & party loyalists
* a sizeable minority of SNP voters will be pro-Brexit
If you want to know what voters think of Brexit, polls @whatukthinks & elsewhere are clearer guide to
- Remain vs Leave
- support/oppose new referendum
- how many people back No Deal
This election doesnt answer that (esp as 15m+ people who will vote in GE didnt vote on Thursday)
- Remain vs Leave
- support/oppose new referendum
- how many people back No Deal
This election doesnt answer that (esp as 15m+ people who will vote in GE didnt vote on Thursday)
There are European Elections right across much of this continent. Follow @simonjhix @AlbertoNardelli @GoodwinMJ @CasMudde @robfordmancs @anandMenon1 @PoliticoRyan @POLITICOEurope for lots of info from a much wider range of sources and analysis on what we know & what we don't.
GB results
UKIP won no seats, polling 2% to 3% in most regions.
Its best result was 6% in the north-east; almost 5% in East Midlands and West Midlands.
All 3 MEPs lost their seats, including leader Gerard Batten. The party is about to begin a leadership contest.
Its best result was 6% in the north-east; almost 5% in East Midlands and West Midlands.
All 3 MEPs lost their seats, including leader Gerard Batten. The party is about to begin a leadership contest.
Tommy Robinson polls 2.2% in 8th place, falls massively short of what he needed. He blames being banned from social media, implausibly claiming he "would have walked this election" if still on Facebook. His international profile much higher than UK appeal
lbc.co.uk/news/tommy-rob…
lbc.co.uk/news/tommy-rob…
