Below 15.7% (Gordon Brown, Labour 2009) would be lowest ever share by UK governing party in Euro Elections.
23.1% (2014) is worst previous Cons score. Governing parties have gone +13% between Euro election & next GE in last 3 cycles
He could win two European Elections in a row, with different parties. Higher share than Ukip 26% in 2014 would show Brexit Party goes broader.
Could win in Wales (Ukip 27.5% to Lab 28%) & get > 20% in London (ukip 16%) & Scotland (10%)
48.6% (Thatcher 1979, a month after the General Election) and 42.6% (Labour 1994, under acting leader Margaret Beckett) are highest %
William Hague's 33.5% (1999) is the highest Euros % of any party since the switch to PR that year - and might be hit.
24% in 2014 was Labour's worst % in Opposition. The first time Her Majesty's Opposition had not topped Euros poll since 1984.
Leading Opposition party has always finished 1st or 2nd (1979, 1984, 2014) & never below 2nd place.
The LibDems have always seemed to poll badly in previous PR elections.
So 14.4% in 2004 (12 seats/78) is their best post-1999 result, along with 13.3% (11 seats/72) in 2009.
Best ever vote was 18.5% (but 0 seats) for the Alliance in 1984.
Won 24 seats in 2014 on 26.6% but just 3 MEPs remain with Ukip.
East of England may be strongest region but is 9% in reach?
Gerard Batten would need 8-9% in London to be re-elected, before decides whether to stand in imminent UKIP leader contest
15% in 1989 (but no seats)
7.8% (2009) best under PR post-99
3 in 2014 (7%)
(2 seats from 1999, in 2004 & 2009)
Record Scottish turnout in Euro elections if just 34% vote.
Scotland Euros turnout (UK)
2014: 33.5% (35.6%)
2009: 28.5% (34.7%)
2004: 30.6% (38.5%)
1999: 24.7% (24.0%)
29% is peak party % (post-1999)
SNP 2014, 2009; Labour 1999
Independent candidate in north-west needs to emulate 8% won by Nick Griffin of BNP in same region, 2009 to get in.
Bookmakers/betting exchanges suggest 1/3 chance, prob inflated by supporters having a flutter
It isn't a proxy referendum, even if it feels like one.
Is the contest ....
Or is it ...
Soften Deal? (Lab)
Govt Deal (Cons)
* over half Cons 2019 voters likely to be 2016 remainers (mostly pro-deal over new referendum) alongside some 2016 leavers (mostly pro-deal, over no deal) & party loyalists
* a sizeable minority of SNP voters will be pro-Brexit
- Remain vs Leave
- support/oppose new referendum
- how many people back No Deal
This election doesnt answer that (esp as 15m+ people who will vote in GE didnt vote on Thursday)
Its best result was 6% in the north-east; almost 5% in East Midlands and West Midlands.
All 3 MEPs lost their seats, including leader Gerard Batten. The party is about to begin a leadership contest.