Thread by @APHClarkson

English speculation around setting up border controls in Ireland ignores where the impact of the blame game will be most important. Namely in Northern Ireland itself. Who thinks or says what in England will be at most secondary to how people react in Ireland and Northern Ireland

So what if Brexiters in England make this or that claim in the first weeks of a No Deal scenario? The behaviour of local citizens and politicians on both sides of the actual border will be far more important in terms of determining whether Northern Ireland stays in the UK Union

The UK government no longer has the policing or military resources to deploy to Northern Ireland that it still had in the 1980s. The British state will struggle to counteract any moves on the ground to de facto challenge London's ability to shape Northern Ireland's future.

Debate in England over Brexit has reached such a solipsistic pitch that how Brexiters might sell events around the border in Ireland to English voters seems to matter more to many in London than how people living along the Irish border might react to change there.

Who Brexiters in Burnley or Brighton blame for events on the border in Ireland matters a lot less to the future of the UK Union than who those living along the border in Ireland blame for the uncertainty and disruption that they face

It is telling how almost every English commentator speaks of reactions "over here" to events "over there" when discussing the trajectory of Northern Ireland.

If you do not see a part of your Union state as part of your collective "us" then the Union's future is in trouble