Thread by @peterjukes

BREAKING: #YellowHammer documents released on UK government's worst case planning assumptions for No Deal as of 2 August. Thread follows
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70%... In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs ·could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border.

Dependent on the plans EU Member States put in place to cope with these in.creased immigration checks it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports.

There will likely be significant electricity price increases for consumers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political impacts. Some participants could exit the market, thereby exacerbating the economic and political impacts. (

The reliance of medicines and medical products' supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits.. Whilst some products can be stockpiled, others cannot... DHSC note

Vague on medicines. "Reliance of medicines and medical products' supply chains on short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits.. Whilst some products can be stockpiled, others cannot"

Bad on Veterinary medicines. Air freight capacity and the special import scheme is not a financially viable mitigation to fully close risks associated with all UK veterinary medicine availability issues due to border disruption. (DEFRA)

Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease.... Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption.

Some cross-border UK financial services will be disrupted. Law enforcement data and information sharing between UK and EU will be disrupted.

UK nationals will lose their EU citizenship and, as a result, can expect to lose associated rights and access to services over time, or be required to access them on a different basis to now.

Demand for help from HMG will increase significantly leading to an increase in consular enquiries and more complex and time­consuming consular assistance cases f9r vulnerable UKNs.

UK pensioners, workers, travellers and students will need to access healthcare in different ways, depending on the country. Healthcare may require people to demonstrate residency, current .or previous employment, enter a social insurance scheme, or purchase private insurance.

Prolonged border delays over the longer term are likely to adversely impact Gibraltar's economy. Like the UK mainland, cross-border services and data flow will also be disrupted.

Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions.

Regional traffic disruption caused by border delays could affect fuel distribution within the local area, particularly if traffic queues in Kent block the Dartford crossing, which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the South-East.

Section 15, presumably on national security and civil disorder has been redacted.

A kicker for all those saying Brexit is a justified rebellion by those who feel left out "Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel. "

On the effect on businesses "Some businesses will stop trade or relocate to avoid paying the tariff which will make them uncompetitive or to avoid the risk of trading illegally, while others will continue to trade, but experience higher costs which may be passed on to consumers."

Up to 282 EU and EEA nations fishing vessels could enter illegally, or already be fishing in UK waters (Up to 129 vessels in English waters, 100 vessels in Scottish waters, 40 vessels in Welsh waters, 13 vessels 1n Northern Irish waters) on day one.

Agencies won't be able to cope with overload " illegal fishing, borders violations (smuggling and illegal migration), and any disorder or criminality arising as a: result, e.g. violent disputes or blockading of ports. (Defra, HO, and the DAs in respect of fisheries protection)."

SOCIAL CARE: An increase in inflation following EU exit would significantly impact adult social care providers due to in􀀼reasing staff and supply costs, and may lead to provider failure, with smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit