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Claire Berlinski
@ClaireBerlinski
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
It's only a trap for Biden if he walks into it. Otherwise it's pure advantage Biden. I agree that most voters are low-information, incurious, and narrative-driven. But this is a really *easy* story to understand. It made Warren, Bernie, Harris et. al--and the NYT--look awful.
To swing voters who are put off by Trump's dishonesty, this is all you need to conclude, "They're all alike." Trump obviously realizes this is pure gold. Because it is. Breathtaking Democratic self-sabotage. Biden could, potentially, turn it very much to his advantage--
but I don't know if he has the wit to do so.
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More from @ClaireBerlinski see all

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Claire Berlinski
@ClaireBerlinski
The problem is less that he's not reading his briefing papers and more that so many Americans don't read newspapers at all, so this will sound plausible to many of them, even though it's absurd on the face of it.
Well, actually: It's a big problem that he doesn't read his briefing papers. But we live in a representative democracy; in principle, Americans should be able to delegate "reading the briefing papers" to their elected representatives.
But by this point, they should be fully aware that he either doesn't read them, or behaves as if he doesn't, so they need to pay more attention to these things than ordinarily they would.
Read 3 tweets
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Claire Berlinski
@ClaireBerlinski
Meanwhile: I'm not a Kremlinologist, don't read Russian and don't want to pretend to have special insight, but none is needed to understand two things. 1) Putin tends to go on reckless foreign adventures when his domestic popularity sags. 2) His domestic popularity is sagging.
The way it looks to the Kremlin when this kind of thing happens--because it's true--is that the US is not firmly committed to upholding its defense commitments. This is a recipe for disaster.
And all the more so because it's manifestly clear Americans are in a profoundly isolationist mood. Iran just knocked out 5% of the world's energy supplies, and we said, "Well, screw it." There was firm bipartisan support for saying, "Screw it." This sort of thing gets noticed.
Read 6 tweets
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Claire Berlinski
@ClaireBerlinski
So if Americans are asking, "Why are we providing Ukraine assistance in the first place," this is one reason among many. We promised to.

There are many other reasons, including the principle that Russia shouldn't invade formerly captive nations and kill their citizens.
And that it has developed a habit of doing this.
So for Ukraine, this is literally a matter of life and death, literally a matter of whether they will continue to exist as an independent nation. The last thing they want is to be another issue in the interminable US culture wars. From their perspective: a surreal nightmare.
Read 3 tweets

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Allison M. Smith,PhD
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
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#Biden has always been a disastrous candidate for women and thus far is performing badly as ever.
Biden's rollout in majority black Philly was small, majority suburban and male.
Biden has zero policy, but much baggage.
Biden is NOT our future.
The future is female.
I know no one who is pro-Biden.
Not my MIL who rolls her eyes over Biden but likes Warren nor a single other family member, friend, colleague or neighbor, whether boomer, gen x or millennial.
Polling has been limited and 67% say they are still looking while Biden's numbers drop.
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Josh Marshall
@joshtpm
Let me share some general thoughts about Biden that may illuminate some of these threads I’m participating in. Polls 18 months out are def very early. And I share many of the concerns abt the viability of Biden’s candidacy as other express. Polls can definitely change.
2/ It wld be crazy to say the June 2019 polls say he’s the best candidate so let’s hurry up and nominate him. You definitely need to see him manage the intensity of the campaign. Polls are limited evidence at this point.
3/ But they do provide some outside metric against which to judge our assumptions. And I see a lot of people unwilling to do that. So we come up with, well no one is really paying attn yet. So the polls don’t mean anything.
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Logic
@OnWithLogic
1) Thread about inner city Congressional districts, and how they indirectly damage our lives quite a lot.

We like to believe that "you live there, we live here," but it's not that way at all, it's a hugely destructive problem for our legislative branch of government.
2) Inner cities are plagued with social problems. Drugs, crime, vagrancy, health, fatherless kids, and more germane to where I am heading, education.

Inner city voters are low information voters. Tribal voters. And dangerous to national stability as a result.
3) The biggest danger this block poses is Congress.

House of Representatives, specifically.
Read 22 tweets
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Jason Johnson
@DrJasonJohnson
I've been busy all week doing real work....But I knew I would eventually get around this ..... So here goes.....
Sit back, and grab a donut, this is gonna take a few tweets....
First, @KatrinaPierson I was specifically talking about black Trump supporters that I have met, interviewed and worked with. Not all black people who voted for Trump because I make a distinction, one you either didn't see or chose to ignore, so let me re-iterate
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Civics For Grown Ups
@Civics4GrownUps
✅ RT THREAD! ✅

Something we hear a lot: "Smart, independent voters should stay independent and not affiliate with a political party."

FWIW we professional political scientists call that logic the “myth of the independent voter.” Read on... /1
In reality, the vast majority of voters have made up their mind about which party best represents their interests, values, and identity. They vote for that party most of the time. (That’s one of the many reasons it’s hard for third parties to break in—see our previous thread). /2
Many voters treat parties like brands that they can trust and remain more or less loyal to down the ballot. Seeing a "D", "R", "L", "G" or other label next to a candidate's name gives voters - particularly low information voters - a shortcut to help in their decision-making. /3
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