Thread by @lewis_goodall

This is all very Wilson in 1975:

-doesn’t have to resign if he loses.
-disincentivises voting “wrong way” just to kick govt
-helps keep party together

Though Wilson wasn’t completely neutral...suspect like in 75 Corbyn would have to say what he’d prefer. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…

He’s looking at you, Jeremy.

But once again, in declaring his neutrality, Corbyn places himself in the middle of, it rather outside, the Brexit culture war. He’s triangulating (ironically). Not much evidence there’s much of an electoral market for that.

That culture war did not exist in 1975, allowing Wilson to (very cleverly) step back. Not sure those conditions exist now.

In terms of how Corbyn’s position would work if implemented, the advantage is he doesn’t have to say he’d vote against his own deal, which sounded absurd. But the fact he won’t endorse it and most of Labour would campaign against it, will be spun as very nearly as absurd.

The bigger problem for the country is that a softer Brexit than May’s deal as the Leave option on the ballot paper, though “credible”, will be deemed crooked by many Brexiters and not a “real Brexit.” Susepct many would boycott. Referendum would therefore lack legitimacy.

The other difference with Wilson is that although it wasn’t much appreciated, Wilson was deeply (though quietly) convinced of the importance of keeping Britain in the EEC. It wasn’t just a party management issue (though that was central). Corbyn’s motivations are more opaque.

Wilson was also managing a party which was much more evenly divided if not with a balance actually more hostile against the EEC. Today, with the exception of some of the trade unions, the party, especially the membership, is generally much more straightforwardly against Leave.

So all in all, though I can see what they’re driving at, I just don’t see this position lasting very long. Probably not even beyond conference.

Corbyn has pledged a referendum. It is easily the most credible path to remain. In many ways Corbyn’s personal position is irrelevant beyond that basic fact. Even if they don’t like him, Corbyn could be used to deliver what they want. But remainers want more than that.

They desperately want someone to believe. In the Brexit culture wars belief of the players, their authenticity, matters more than the political positions they adopt and their utility. That’s why triangulation for Corbyn keeps coming up short.

It’s ironic. Corbyn spent a career saying authenticity, belief and principle were the only things which mattered. Those who assailed him and preached pragmatism are often now those who adopt the old Corbyn piety. The idealists have become the machine politicians and vice-versa.