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Hans HODL
@hansthered
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Apparently some people are worried about Bitcoin? I don't know if I can help, but let's look at some data!

Here's a chart of the 365 daily moving average of the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network. Looks like we're at an all-time high...
Ok, let's check the hash rate. Maybe the miners quit mining or something? No, actually that's at an all-time high as well.
What about the inflation rate? Did we suddenly increase the supply? Hmm, right on schedule and falling in log scale over time as expected.
Maybe the price is the issue? No, that's increasing in log scale too...
Well, I guess we could look at the global banking system. Maybe the Fed finally got everything under control and there's no need for Bitcoin anymore? Gah! Wrong again....
Did the developers stop writing code? No, 114 Pull Requests merged in the last 30 days...
I don't know what to tell you guys, from a fundamental perspective Bitcoin looks great. I guess it's back to HODLing!
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Hans HODL
@hansthered
I've heard people say that being involved in Bitcoin is a game of speculation. Some say it's all about FUD, FOMO, Fear and Greed or following the crowd. I call BS. Let's look at the data! Here are 21 Bitcoin charts from @coinmetrics that tell a different story.
The amount of data being stored on the blockchain has been increasing constantly, regardless of the price. Why do people want to transmit data on the Bitcoin blockchain? It's all about trust and the ability to transfer value without asking permission!
Realized value is at an all-time high. This is the amount the coins are worth the last time they were moved. Look at that momentum...
Read 22 tweets
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Hans HODL
@hansthered
Today I'm introducing two new on-chain metrics and responding to this thread by @_Checkmatey_. On some points we agree, but I'm very bullish right now and I want to explain why using the blockchain.

First, I agree with this "Likely this was driven by leverage, deep pockets and speculation rather than HODLERs." As whale HODLers move coins to cold storage they reducing the supply (bullish long-term) but this also means they're not the ones driving short-term price action.
I also agree that MVRV is elevated, but if we look at the MVRV ratio over time there are two important things I notice.

1. Cycle times are usually a couple years from a MVRV bottom to a top. We've only had a few months since the last bottom.
Read 12 tweets
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Hans HODL
@hansthered
Bitcoin bubble tops are clearly identified with a dark red cluster of Adjusted Binary BDD. Until that happens, we're not at the top. Public opinion is key here because that red cluster is caused by the assumption of the crowd and is self-fulfilling (reflexivity).
In fact, recently there's been quite a bit of accumulation (or what you might call dormancy, a lack of 'destruction'). A few people are always going to take short-term profits, but that's to be expected in any market.
If we zoom out and think about the long-term, our current level of Reserve Risk is equivalent to where we were in the early part of 2017. If you recall that was right BEFORE things got really crazy and 6-9 months before the bubble burst (BTC was around $1-$2k at the time).
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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zen ₿
@thatzenboi
Imagine a world where mass, distance, time, temperature, electric current and luminosity are not measured using fixed units, rather the units are changed often qouting environmental or political reasons? Would you believe in the scientific measurements done using such model?
Economics is defined as the science of wealth(Marshall) or in the terms of scarcity(Robbins). Regardless of the definition, money is considered the unit of account. The current monetory global standard is Fiat money or government printed money.
The measure of a product's(or service) value is called a price and is generally decided by market forces of supply and demand. The price is market's perceived value and not reflective of inherent value. Prices are measured using the unit of money. E.g $1000 for a smartphone 🤷
Read 20 tweets
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CryptoKea
@CryptoKea
26/ Bitcoin´s price is very much on track to resemble the first major correction of 2017´s bull market in terms of Mayer Multiples (see full thread for details & targets). Even if we go all the way down to the bottom of the bullish channel, this is still considered a bull market.
For some reason, I cannot attach this post to the prior thread. Please find it here for all the details:
27/ With yesterday´s close, my main targets got hit:

✅Rejection and reversal at 2.5x the 200 DMA (predicted on 24 June with BTC at 11k, hit on 26 June at 12,8k on daily close).

✅Break down to 1.7x the 200 DMA (predicted on 3 July with BTC at 11.9k, hit on 16 July at 9,5k).
Read 38 tweets
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mcm-ct.com
@mcm_ct
#Chart #EXTRAVAGANZA

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

/1
Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow up...how much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

/2
And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

/3
Read 38 tweets
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cinyc
@cinyc9
Tutorial on how to make a map using QGIS. I'll turn @SenhorRaposa's 2000 Vermont town data into a map showing by how much Gore outran Senator Jeffords (or vice versa) in every town.
Step 1: Download QGIS for your computer, which is available here:
qgis.org/en/site/foruse…
You'll also need some of Census' Tiger/Line County and County Sub shapefiles. The main download page for those is here:
census.gov/cgi-bin/geo/sh…

A direct link to the 2017 VT county sub shapefile is here: ftp://ftp2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2017/COUSUB/tl_2017_50_cousub.zip
I can't find a 2017 County file by state, so we'll use the 2009 verison here:
ftp://ftp2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2009/50_VERMONT/tl_2009_50_county.zip
(We could always edit the 17 national county file in QGIS & create a 2017 VT-only county shapefile, but let's keep it simple.)
Read 176 tweets

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