Thread by @BradMunchen

1) $TSLA Q3 sales of 97K vs >100K "pump" just 1 week ago is "automotive anti-orgasm". @elonmusk apparently has such bad tracking systems at $TSLA, that he doesn't even know how many cars they've sold in real time. It appears he's starting to fail even at stock-pump fraud.

2) So now the question is: how much "non-fundamental" cash will be used to prop up sagging revenues? Putting in Q3 deliveries & tweaking, I get $6.4bn in total revs (-6% YoY). Musk will be stuttering like a broken record if he has to print such an "un-exponential" growth rate.

3) $TSLAQ members fret over how much FSD deferred rev is recognized. While Musk could recognize all $567m of it for Q3, this would only result in a 1.6% YoY, by my estimates (which include $200m of ZEV/GHG credits). So Q3 should still result in the lowest YoY growth on record.

4) Even if Musk blows his "FSD wad" in Q3, investors will stare straight through it. Just like most analysts strip out ZEV/GHG credits from $TSLA's profits (which are recurring & CF+), FSD could be seen as simply a one-off, especially in light of NHTSA's scrutiny of Smart Summon.

5) So let's forget about FSD recognition. The desperate Q3 "100K delivery pump" that @elonmusk tried to pull off failed w/ just 1 week to go. This means pricing should be horrible. With $200m in ZEV/GHG, I get -$450m in GAAP net loss & -$600m FCF. This should be met with selling.

6) And keep in mind that the revenue hurdle remains steep in Q4 & $TSLA's target of 360K for 2019 just became harder to reach, as $TSLA needed at least 101K in Q3, but fell short by 4K. Q4 volumes must now grow by 15% YoY, as the earth crumbles beneath US Model 3 demand.
$TSLAQ