Thread by @BradMunchen

1) I've been looking at $TSLA consensus forecasts on Bloomberg for Q3 onwards. Some interesting facts:

a) Q3 deliveries seen rising by 8.6% YoY, yet revenues falling -6.2% YoY (ex-growth priced in?)
b) Gross margin seen at 14.6%
c) GAAP net loss of -$214m
d) FCF: positive $179m

2) Q4 sort of the same thing, but slight improvement: Deliveries +5.6% YoY; revenues down -3% YoY.

Note the lumpy "Net Asset Value" (Equity) estimates for Q3 & Q4: both at $6.2bn, despite GAAP net losses.

Also, note positive FCF (next 6 Qs all +FCF except for Q1'20).

3) But there are more analysts listed up for full-year estimates vs quarterly. Here's where it gets interesting:

a) Implied 2H'19 revenues fall -1.5% YoY, yet gross margin rises to 18.5% despite higher deliveries vs 2H'18.
b) 2H capex rises 2.4x vs 1H yet +FCF of $444m.

4) FY20 consensus is outright whacky: 24% delivery growth and 24% revenue growth, so "no more price declines". Oh and gross margins of 24% would make 2020 a record high level of profitability not seen since 2017 when only the S/X were selling at their highest prices.

5) And here's why $TSLA consensus is so much fun:

Only 52% of the 20 analysts are devoted auto analysts.

29% are tech.

19% are energy.

6) Of the 11 Auto analysts, 64% have Sell ratings & 18% have Buys.

Of the 6 Tech analysts, 17% have Sells & 33% have Buys.

Of the 4 Energy analysts, 1 has a Sell while the other 3 have Buys.

7) As far as I know, none are modeling out China in great detail for 2020, which I think will be a disaster (cough! $NIO).

Highest target price: New Street (Tech): $530
Lowest: Williams Research (Energy): $70
Lowest Auto analyst target is my favorite, Barclays: $150.

$TSLAQ