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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 7 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
Am going to try and disentangle this Customs Union and Northern Ireland point, because I don't think I agree with either @DanielJHannan or @CER_Grant - but this is far from straightforward territory (did I mention before negotiations are complex?) 1/
@DanielJHannan @CER_Grant Start with a UK-wide Customs Union. A case can be made, @AllieRenison made it some time ago - you can argue the UK should focus on services and could arrange consultative mechanisms with EU. Parliament could support. But let's assume we don't... 2/ iod.com/ingoodcompany/…
@DanielJHannan @CER_Grant @AllieRenison So would Northern Ireland only being part of a Customs Union definitely be a show stopper? There are clear democratic issues to address, as well as GB-NI trade barriers. Not easy to overcome but if there was cross-community support maybe you could resolve? 3/
@DanielJHannan @CER_Grant @AllieRenison But let's assume we don't in fact want Northern Ireland in the EU Customs Union but are happy with it in the single market. Is that position compatible with Brexit? Right now, not obviously, but again if all sides wanted that to happen and would give it the time needed? 4/
@DanielJHannan @CER_Grant @AllieRenison Right now different customs territories always mean a border. There are trusted traders etc, but these haven't changed the fact. But what if we imagine 100% voluntary compliance with all customs and VAT laws, can we get rid of the border? 5/
@DanielJHannan @CER_Grant @AllieRenison I don't think 100% voluntary compliance is ever likely but if we accept the basic parameters given, don't pretend this isn't a problem or a solution currently exists, then maybe we can think of what is possible - but not if we impose arbitrary time limits 6/
@DanielJHannan @CER_Grant @AllieRenison Unfortunately the most immediate problem we face is one of trust - Ireland doesn't trust the UK to renege on any promise, the UK doesn't trust the EU not to trap us, and both have unrealistic timescales. Until that changes, we're stuck. 7/ end
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I have never believed that the only two options for a UK EU relationship are no deal or membership, even given what we know of red lines. I still don't, and would happily be involved in any discussion or exercise on realistic options.
Perhaps the time has passed for constructive Brexit proposals. But if we leave without a deal we'll need to restart the discussion, not least as rejoining would not be straight forward. So why not now, before we go through a damaging Brexit in terms of politics and economics
I'm not expecting a more constructive Brexit narrative any time soon. It's a major failure of UK politics and the wider ecosystem which includes me. It doesn't have to be like this and I have to keep hoping that one day...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Did Merkel really say Northern Ireland would have to stay in the EU Customs Union to get a deal? I suspect it was more nuanced but this suits the UK government narrative
This looks like the Number 10 line that has been building for a while. EU conditions make a deal impossible. I'm sceptical, not least as saying Northern Ireland has to be I the EU CU forever would be a hardening of EU lined.

The actual EU line is probably that there is no current realistic solution to avoiding a Northern Ireland border without Customs Union, but we can work on one. Requiring trust that isn't there hence guarantees. UK not prepared to negotiate on this basis.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Everything @hayward_katy says, plus technology cannot be the answer to fundamental questions of identity and trust. Answer those questions first, then see what arrangements can be put in place to support what emerges
@hayward_katy And this. And while we're at it could those most supportive of no-deal Brexit also bring themselves to admit there is a difficulty in reconciling Brexit and no land border on Ireland?
@hayward_katy And this from @MatthewOToole2
Read 3 tweets

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BorderWarnings
@BorderWarnings
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Theresa Villiers contradicts statements by Ahern, Hayes and Lawson.
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
On #customs formalities and documentation under various #Brexit scenarios. Procedures and documentation required for customs clearance can be confusing. Particularly, the difference between a single market and a customs union seems to be unclear. /1
Under different Brexit scenarios there will be different customs formalities and supporting documentation traders will need to complete/ provide for customs clearance (from an upcoming blogpost): /2
This is a simplified view - additional formalities are required depending on the type of goods (e.g. agricultural, excise) and other supporting documentation may be needed (e.g. licenses, certificates, value declaration, insurance docs, tariff quota docs etc). /3
Read 5 tweets
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Boris Johnson
@BorisJohnson
This is an important moment. Clearly No10 are negotiating a “backstop” that makes the UK a permanent EU colony. We cannot escape EU laws & ECJ until they allow us to – which they may never do. That’s not what the biggest majority in our history voted for #NoColonyStatus 1/4
This backstop keeps the UK in the Customs Union, keeps Northern Ireland in the single market, and almost certainly enhances NI/GB checks. It *will* apply after 2020 unless the EU agrees it won’t. And they will only agree if we keep our rules in lockstep with theirs 2/4
This backstop closes off our options. It means we cannot have no deal / WTO or SuperCanada. Under either our rules could differ from the EU’s – so they will keep us in the backstop instead. It means, in fact, that the only possible deal is Chequers 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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