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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Did Merkel really say Northern Ireland would have to stay in the EU Customs Union to get a deal? I suspect it was more nuanced but this suits the UK government narrative
This looks like the Number 10 line that has been building for a while. EU conditions make a deal impossible. I'm sceptical, not least as saying Northern Ireland has to be I the EU CU forever would be a hardening of EU lined.

The actual EU line is probably that there is no current realistic solution to avoiding a Northern Ireland border without Customs Union, but we can work on one. Requiring trust that isn't there hence guarantees. UK not prepared to negotiate on this basis.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Important thread. Key points are that there are months needed to work out the detail of the customs compromise being discussed, and unclear how you establish the base for these talks, and for the subsequent months and years to build the system, plus...
The idea of Northern Ireland giving ongoing consent is fraught with the question, what if they don't... and the future UK-EU relationship is crucial, and if zero tariffs and quotas will also be a tough negotiation.
In theory the solution offers the chance for the UK to make our own trade deals. In practice, it may be very difficult to do so while all this is being discussed, and not impossible to see end state of, as per the original deal, a UK-EU Customs Union.
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I seem to have been reading variants on this headline for three years
I once heard on reasonable authority that the reason PM May came round to deal over no deal was security warnings. Looks like history may be repeating...
And in the detail, the plan for the spin... I suspect one side has moved rather a lot more than the other, but let's see if the detail can in fact be worked out
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I suspect there will be plenty of Brexit takes over the coming days, @rolandmcs always finds interesting angles...
@rolandmcs From @PatLeahyIT - my own view is that while the outlines of a deal can be seen, there is a lot of detail to put in place, which could affect the Westminister vote - my example would be how to administer agriculture quotas in Northern Ireland irishtimes.com/news/politics/…
@rolandmcs @PatLeahyIT Then there's the wider packaging of any Brexit deal to provide a narrative to both sides... NB you'd think Johnson must have the advantage over May on this one but issue is different domestic audiences
Read 5 tweets

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Denis Staunton
@denisstaunton
After his meeting with Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar said it should not be seen in terms of concessions or of winners and losers. He is probably right.
For the Irish side to suggest to Michel Barnier that the talks produced the basis for renewed negotiations between the UK and the EU, there must have been progress on the toughest issue - customs.
Johnson cannot move from his position that Northern Ireland must leave the EU customs union with the rest of the UK. But that has never been a red line for the EU and Varadkar hinted that Ireland was not wedded to it either.
Read 8 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
An attempt is being made by @SteveBakerHW to render illegal the EU’s Northern Ireland Brexit backstop, which would put NI in customs union and single market but not GB. He has put down amendments to Northern Ireland bill to that effect. This gives government and MPs a...
...massive dilemma. On the one hand, @theresa_may and most MPs are implacably opposed to seeing NI alone in trading area with EU separate and different from that relating to GB, because it would put new border or barrier between NI and GB. But EU reaffirmed...
...on Thursday that this backstop, with no end date, must be in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. So if parliament were to vote to render backstop illegal, it would be voting for a no-deal Brexit. Baker is forcing @theresa_may to choose between the integrity of UK and...
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
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Henry Farrell
@henryfarrell
1. This is a very big deal - Theresa May is reportedly going to denounce the Irish border 'backstop' at a speech in Belfast tomorrow.
2. The backstop was the key commitment that the UK made in order to move from Brexit pre-negotiations into actual talks. Brexit has destabilizing implications for the Irish peace process, because it threatens to recreate a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
3. That's why under the backstop, the UK agreed that Northern Ireland would remain in "full alignment" with the European Union's customs and market arrangements, even if no other solution could be reached. That seemed to allow the EU and UK to bracket the Northern Ireland problem
Read 15 tweets
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Hilary #FBPE Explaining Brexit
@atatimelikethis
A thread on the contradictions of leaving the EU. It'll try to be as neutral as possible in the circumstances. And it'll try to be simple and logical.

Let's separate this area by area into bite sized chunks so we can understand them, and then look at what we have at the end.
1. trade.
EU is the UKs largest trading partner, about 40-50% of trade depending on whether you count services. That trade % is declining over time, but not fast.

Most of your infrastructure and logistics are built around the EU too so that's a factor to consider.
So if you're gonna pay for your economy after Brexit you have to trade with the EU, or find a way to replace 40-50% of your economy, with a bit of wiggle room in the future for declining share of EU.

And you have to be efficient enough to pay for the increased logistics costs.
Read 76 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The Nigel Dodds interview on #Brexit and the Customs Union issue is worth reading in full...it takes us to heart of problem for May/UK. A quick thread. /1

conservativehome.com/highlights/201…
First point: Dodds is adamant there must be an 'all-UK solution' - so he threatens to bring down Govt if Northern Ireland gets left *on its own* in the Customs Union, while UK is free to diverge. BUT he doesn't totally rule all of UK staying in customs union. /2
Dodds's forceful articulation of DUP red line appears to close off one of the obvious areas of 'give' in the Customs Union conundrum - increased checks on goods between UK mainland and Northern Ireland. Unless someone calls DUP bluff. /3
Read 11 tweets

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