MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly Recap wk40 as of 04Oct19 - thread 1/n
• RiskOFF wk first, then rebound
• Global biz confidence weak but stable (49.7 +0.2)
• Germany PMI tanks to 41.7 and US ISM to 47.8 (both 10Y low)
• ok NFP, hope on China deal and FED cut relieve rally
• RiskOFF wk first, then rebound
• Global biz confidence weak but stable (49.7 +0.2)
• Germany PMI tanks to 41.7 and US ISM to 47.8 (both 10Y low)
• ok NFP, hope on China deal and FED cut relieve rally
2/n Global M.PMI Sep survey was overall stable but remained on weak levels, breadth improved slightly but also remains in negative outlook and uncertainty
3/n global biz confidence overview, some rebounds, some further deterioration. ISM is not part of this group, and also interesting (as we all know) these surveys have a skew into new orders (30%).
4/n the still weak global biz confidence was yet again bond friendly, but US saw another bull-steepening week.
RBI 5th rate cut and delivered -25bp and RBA in the corner with their 13th cut in this cycle to a record 0.75%.
Moody's upgraded CZ 1 notch to Aa3 stable
RBI 5th rate cut and delivered -25bp and RBA in the corner with their 13th cut in this cycle to a record 0.75%.
Moody's upgraded CZ 1 notch to Aa3 stable
5/n 10Y govt heatmap... big move last 2 weeks, US nearly back to Sep lows as disinflationary theme continues
6/n VIX spiked to nearly 21 after big miss ISM and miss NMI ... but stocks intraday rejection and relieve NFP rally brought vola back to 17sh and normal sloping curve structure
7/n NFP wasn't too bad with +136k (or +1.44% YoY) and Aug was revised up strongly.
UE rate dropped to new 5-decades low 3.5%... Jobless claims are actually also low.
far away from recession talks tbh. UE would have to move above 24MA and NFP YoY to 1% = lagging or slow.
UE rate dropped to new 5-decades low 3.5%... Jobless claims are actually also low.
far away from recession talks tbh. UE would have to move above 24MA and NFP YoY to 1% = lagging or slow.
8/n The Trump Chart
from the great reflation story to overhiking FED and trade war.
This uncertainty is global, ISM only caught up to weakness and ongoing disinflation theme.
Rates & Creditspreads aren't the issue here. It's the waiting game.
from the great reflation story to overhiking FED and trade war.
This uncertainty is global, ISM only caught up to weakness and ongoing disinflation theme.
Rates & Creditspreads aren't the issue here. It's the waiting game.
9/n ICYMI... FED NY announced what some had rumoured... more term repos coming up. here is the schedule
10/n which also means I will stop this update from now on as it's clear now, they will have more O/N and more term repos.
Fri O/N was slightly up to 39b, bringing it to rolling 178b.
Fri O/N was slightly up to 39b, bringing it to rolling 178b.
11/n so, the repo squeeze (rates-wise) has cooled down, but with the rolling 178b and the announced ongoing O/N and more term repos, this part hasn't.
But here is the question: why does BBG, RT, FRED etc show an increase of the balance sheet, when a) these are REPOs and b) =
But here is the question: why does BBG, RT, FRED etc show an increase of the balance sheet, when a) these are REPOs and b) =
12/n ...and b) SOMA = the real long term holdings doesn't show them ?
13/n SOMA holdings are more or less unchanged
14/n anyways... I will conclude with global markets YTD update as of wk40
15/n and the update on Momentum / Trend / Exhaustion scores as of wk40
• credits are slightly shifting towards RiskOff
• credits are slightly shifting towards RiskOff
16/end
wish you all a great week ahead. x
wish you all a great week ahead. x
@threadreaderapp unroll thx
