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@peter_mott @QuantumTaranti2 I do address it, Peter, but perhaps not in the way you think. My point is that the resolution of excess debt just means assigning the cost to specific sectors within the economy, and because this is above all a political issue, it
is hard to predict. Inflation or financial...
@peter_mott @QuantumTaranti2 ...repression both work, although are unlikely because they force the cost onto household savers, whose share of China's GDP is already far too low. History suggests many others. Ceaușescu's Romania repressed workers to pay off the debt. Other countries expropriated the rich...
@peter_mott @QuantumTaranti2 ...In China's case local governments should absorb the cost, by transferring wealth to households or banks. Etc. etc.
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Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
This is a very good piece by @PaulBlustein, but it gets parts of the trade dynamics wrong. China’s “unfair” domestic requirements were no different than those imposed in the US and many other countries during their stages of rapid development. These requirements may have hurt...
@PaulBlustein ...individual companies – if Spain’s Gamesa was willing to give away its future for a short-term gain in market share, for example, that’s just a bad business decision – but they don’t hurt foreign economies overall. Chinese import substitution policies would not be a problem...
@PaulBlustein ...for the world as long as China replaced those imports with other imports.
But because of increasingly unbalanced income distribution, China couldn't keep imports growing fast enough even as its exports surged. As it forced households to subsidize manufacturing, Chinese...
Read 12 tweets
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Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
On Friday the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released the balance of payments data for the first half of 2019. As the summary table below indicates, China’s trade surplus will be roughly 3.0% of its estimated 2019 GDP, while its current...
safe.gov.cn/en/2019/0927/1…
...account surplus will come in at roughly 1.3% and net foreign inflows at 0.6%.

Trade surplus +208.4
Other current account -120.2
-Net current account surplus +88.2
-Capital account surplus ex reserves +40.6
-Change in reserves +2.4
-Errors and omissions deficit -131.2
...The numbers are in billion of US dollars.

What's worrying to me is errors and omission, which amount to roughly 1.9% of GDP. By definition we don’t know what this is, but it always serves as a reasonable proxy for illegal flight capital. If Chinese are taking so much money...
Read 5 tweets
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Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
Very good piece by @arvindsubraman and @rodrikdani arguing that for developing countries like China, more open capital markets and foreign borrowing “will lead only to more volatility, more frequent crises, and less overall dynamism.” I would add that...
prosyn.org/8JRW50w
@arvindsubraman @rodrikdani ...this is not just a problem for developing countries, but also for advanced ones. In fact at Bretton Woods both JM Keynes and HD White, amidst their many disagreements, argued for totally open borders for the flow of ideas, mostly open borders for the flow of trade, and...
@arvindsubraman @rodrikdani ...mostly closed borders for the flow of capital.
The theoretical justification for unfettered capital flows is that capital always seeks out its most productive use, in which case free capital flows will maximize global productivity, even if the benefits aren’t always fairly...
Read 5 tweets

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Ahmed Tabaqchali
@AMTabaqchali
"Up #debt creek without a paddle"
#Iraq's budget’s structural imbalance between current & investment expenditures, as ever-increasing current expenditures will overtake revenues, needs debt to fund this gap.

Data in chart: 2010-2024 IMF estimates & projections.

1/10
#Iraq has been fortunate that higher oil prices & exports led to a budget surplus of over $27.5bn by end of Jul 2019. Revenue-expenditure gap is pushed forward in time. But, it is only a matter of when, not if, expenditures will overtake revenues.



2/10
This structural imbalance needs time be addressed, in the meantime there will be an urgent need to finance both.

The social contract, re-public employment, cannot be broken without creating the conditions for private sector growth to absorb an ever-growing labour force.

3/10
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Brianne
@bennessb
Is there somebody in your life with weird health problems that you don't really understand?

Let me tell you a little more about the process of becoming chronically ill:

1/
Stage 1: Alarm

When you first realize that your symptoms aren't going away on their own. It may happen dramatically (with an ER visit) or gradually (nagging discomfort).

Many people will get into wellness protocols at this point: diets, supplements, exercise, more sleep.

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Dr. Çağrı Mert Bakırcı
@cagrimbakirci
#Eğitim ve #YKS19 hakkındaki tartışmalar devam ederken, #Fransa'da Napolyon'un emriyle 1808'den beri uygulanan "bac" sınavından söz etmekte fayda var.

Bu, her lise öğrencisinin mezuniyet için geçmek zorunda olduğu açık uçlu bir sınav.

Sorulara birkaç örnek vermek istiyorum:
• İnsanlık kendisi hakkında illüzyonlar yaratmaya mahkum mudur?

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• Gerçeği aramak bizim görevimiz midir?

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William Casarin
@jb55
random waking up at 3am and can't get back to sleep thought: complex things are high dimensional, dimensionality reduction is simplification. Unix philosophy is low dimensional, piping is composition in 1d. Large monolithic codebases with many abstractions is high dim and complex
dimensionality reduction with tensors is called contraction. perhaps that's one way to think about factoring your complex heirarchical, high dimensional codebase into a flat, compositional and combinatorial one. Codebase contraction.
Perhaps this is why many dependencies tends to be so awful, you get that high dimensionality horribleness in your dependency heirarchy when what you really want is a flat heirarchy or none at all.
Read 4 tweets
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🌎🌵the 🚀🌌cosmist 💣✊insurrection 🏴🚩
@yungneocon
Denialism about 5 things:
1. The Shoah
2. American Slavery
3. Indigenous Genocide
4. Climate change
5. Nuclear weapons

Are all united by the vastness, magnitude, diversity, precision & robustness of the evidence they dispute.
What’s more, all of them STILL have evidence in the present. Holocaust survivors, the existence of racism today (which they also deny), reservations, current warming & emissions, nuclear fallout, etc
All 5 are also united by the magnitude of their destructiveness, both in the past, in the lingering present and in the future.
Read 66 tweets
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Michael Beaton
@mhbx
This is far more than a snarky or pejorative statement. It is a fair read of the framework that supports the thinking that manifests as "solutions" to the knotty, complex problems we face at every level. Fr Global to the local community to the individual.
When we meet new situations with old principles & ideas that are themselves a product of their time they will show themselves inadequate to the times.
Some principles are foundational & span all times. Very broadly speaking I call these 'The Tao'. The way of things.
The principle of 'All things Change' fits in this category. Another is the intrinsic function of opposites that is the essential quality in every vital thing. For example, when a vehicle accelerates it is in a change state, and experiencing a commensurate drag to its thrust.
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