Thread by @Justin_Ling

The French-language too-many-leaders debate is set to begin shortly. I'll be live-tweeting/live-translating. (From the comfort of my own home, this time, with beer and pizza.)

I won't bother the realpolitik of who-needs-the-fabled-knockout-punch, except to say that (if the polls are to be believed) Scheer's numbers are falling apart in Quebec; and Singh's numbers are improving drastically outside of Quebec. So strategy for those two will be interesting

This debate is roughly the same format as the rather chaotic English-language debate. The difference is that there's only one moderator, Patrice Roy, and he pledges to keep them from talking over each other.

Let me amend that: It seems like some of the more elaborate rules (like one person answers and then everyone interrogates that person) have also been axed. Phew.

We've just got all the leaders making their environmental pitches (or lack thereof) right now.

Elizabeth May is now just referring to her cross-party inner cabinet on climate change as a "war cabinet." So that's fun. Everyone loves a war cabinet.

Ok, real stuff. Does the carbon price need to go up?
Trudeau: We'll look at it, but we're announcing other measures to get to our targets.
May: Their targets aren't damn good enough! "It's difficult, it's doable, but it won't be done only with carbon pricing."

This section only involves three leaders (Trudeau, Blanchet, May.) Which makes the debating so much more fluid. (The non-participant leaders are literally in the dark.)

This debate is already more substantive and well-organized than Monday's.

"Our house is on fire!" Elizabeth May says!

She's also on fire, thus far. (Though someone tells me she did just say "Thank you, Elizabeth" to the moderator, so maybe coming in a bit too hot.)

Now May is interrogating Trudeau on TransMountain. "You can't build a pipeline in a climate crisis!" She tells him

"Quebec doesn't want it," Blanchet jumps in to tell Trudeau.

"Bad projects won't happen," Trudeau says.

Roy: OK, so you'll impose it?

"Better than oil by rail."

Now, onto the Wild 3.

Scheer pitches his energy corridor.

Bernier thumps Scheer, saying that'll take years, and he's not ready to use the constitution — and he's also worried about climate change, like Trudeau!

Singh: "I'm Jagmeet Singh, and I'll never impose a pipeline on Quebec."

Then he just stops talking and there's just a silence. A long, awkward silence.

It's really interesting to watch Scheer and Bernier debate each other on how to build pipelines; then have Singh jump in and talk climate. Not sure we learned much. But it sure was a thing that happened.

A *spicy* question to May: "You want to de-carbonize. Are you ready to decrease economic growth?"
"No," says May. She thinks GDP can be created through investment in renewables.

How can you get other countries to decrease emissions when you don't want to decrease Canada's?
Scheer rejects that question, says he'll do "lots" to reduce emissions. [narrator: He won't, according to all current modelling.] Reiterates his pitch to invest in tech and export it.

To Bernier: Why don't you believe the science?

Bernier's answer, in short, is "cuz."

(Gosh bless @F_Cardinal for these questions.)

@F_Cardinal What to do about the olds.

Scheer has several tax breaks and cuts.
Trudeau has some benefits he'll increase
May notes that she's in a similar spot! ("I'm not ready to retire yet, though," and gets some laughs. She'll have a seniors minister!

Bernier, in a weird window into the pitch he should be making, says we don't have the money — and the priority is balancing the budget.
Singh pitches his pharma and dental plans

I'm not sure Singh is really using all of his time. He just capped off a pitch on helping the middle class by saying "I'm not fighting for the rich, I'm fighting for you" with a point to the camera, and another period of silence until May decides to jump in.

(I suspect Singh's team told him to keep things short in order to avoid talking over people, which hurt all the leaders in the first debate. But the good moderating has largely meant there hasn't been any of that.)

"Does this worry you, or not worry you, the deficit?"
Singh: It worries me if the spending is going to the rich, not if it's going to those who need it.
May: You care about the deficit? Subsidies to oil and gas are going up!

Blanchet: We should cut the deficit in half. We need new revenue sources and we need to cut stupid spending plans.

God, it's grim that the Bloc had the most coherent answer on the national deficit of the three.

Scheer: "All of our numbers have been checked by the Parliamentary Budget Officer. Trudeau wrote his numbers on the back of a napkin."

The Conservative Party has not released its election platform. This is wild. What a wild glass house situation.

There's a bit of arguing between Scheer and Trudeau now. The dreaded cross-talk has begun. Bernier is even trying to jump in.

It's incoherent. I'm having shellshock flashbacks to Monday.

Roy jumps in to break them up.

Trudeau and Scheer are just bickering about their slightly-different tax cuts and they're calling each liars. We've all heard this record before.

Bernier has shut them both up with a lecture about how both of their spending plans will be "disastrous" for social services if we hit a recession without getting the deficit in order.

Then we're back to Trudeau and Scheer talking over each other.

It's @HBuzzetti's turn to go at the leaders. "Would you change the age of retirement, 65?"
Scheer: "No."
Buzzetti: Would you cut science and arts to balance the budget?
Scheer: No, we won't touch those. It'll be corporate welfare and foreign aid. (That won't even get him close.)

@HBuzzetti Obligatory Bernier attack on supply management.

@HBuzzetti Buzzetti: "Given the amount of spending you're promising, how can you convince voters you're credible on the economy?"
May: Well our plan is costed, and checked. But we need to do more.

Buzzetti: You won in 2015 promising infrastructure spending. Four years later, you're still pledging to live on credit. What happens if there's a recession? Would you cut that spending?
Trudeau: No because our credit is really good. Just us and Germany. Gooooooood credit.

Buzzetti: Your plan relies on finding money from offshore tax havens. But reports say we always overestimate how much many we can get — the rich, they're good at accounting! Does your plan require magic thinking?
Singh: If we spend more money at CRA, we'll get that money.

Question from a bespeckled man in Toronto about Francophone services outside Quebec.
Scheer: I'd modernize the Official Languages Act
May: Yeah, same. And empower the Language Commissioner to do more.
Bernier: I can't fix everything!!!
Singh: We've got to want to do it!

Both Trudeau and Scheer are bragging about saving the francophones from Doug Ford.

What will you do to improve the lives of Indigenous peoples?
Singh: If we want to act now, we should. Do we want Indigenous people to have the same funding as non-Indigenous people, it shouldn't take a court ruling. "Equal. Funding."

Scheer begins his answer, about the conditions First Nations face, Scheer goes immediately into bringing them into energy projects. And that's it. So.

Blanchet: We need to fix the fundamental relationship with Indigenous peoples.

Singh hits Trudeau for mocking protesters from Grassy Narrows, who have had their water "poisoned."

Blanchet: "We find billions for pipelines, but we can't, after years and years, find money for clean drinking water for First Nations."

Scheer comes back against to getting First Nations in on energy projects. Weird.

Onto the next three. Trudeau asked about being ordered to fix the funding gap for First Nations children — and choosing to fight it in court.

Trudeau: "We agree with the ruling." um....?

May: "The Human Rights Tribunal made a ruling, and your lawyers are fighting it! It's not true, what you say, that you're comfortable with the ruling! You're fighting to overturn a ruling for funding for First Nations children! It's a scandal!"

Bernier says it's not a question of money, we already spend billions! (Of course, we still spend less for people living on reserve than those off reserve, so that's misleading.) But says we need structural change. (Which, fair enough.)

Asked about taxing web giants to fund cultural services, lots of meh answers, then Singh: "Trudeau runs to the left, then governs to the right. Yes we should tax web giants, and yes we should spend on cultural programs!"

Foreign affairs and immigration. Get in the bunker.

Citizen in Moncton brings up Hong Kong, and consular cases:
"Are you prepared to cease trade with China if the situation worsens?"

Trudeau says, yes, human rights are important, but Canadian exporters are doing really in China so. What's to be done!

Scheer would pull Canadian money from the Asia Infrastructure Bank. (Still not clear if this is a thumb in the eye to Beijing or a cost-saving measure.)

May: There's a secret agreement with China for Chinese companies to charge us when there's a law they don't like.

I'm sure you'll all send links to the Council of Canadians, but I have no idea what she's on about.

Blanchet says our arms deal with Saudi Arabia is bad.

I'm starting to feel better about there not being a foreign policy debate. This is embarrassing on all fronts.

Scheer says Trudeau has it all wrong! The Conservative approach will be to defend our producers AND our citizens.

Everyone in the Liberal war room slaps their foreheads. "Oh god if only we had thought of that"

Blanchet says R-E-S-P-E-C-T — people just need to treat us better

Bernier is on about immigrants

We're now talking about Quebec Premier Francois Legault

Nothing in particular. Just generally about him.

Everybody is shouting. I see Patrice Roy shouldering his tranquilizer rifle as he demands order.

If May was seriously talking about the FIPA, that's incredibly dumb. It's a wild misreading of what a FIPA does. And this has been debated for years.

https://twitter.com/friesenp/status/1182465835325100032

Ok we're on to discussing immigration with Quebec. I guess we've completely given up on foreign affairs. THAT'S FINE as the only other country is China. Cool cool. Just Canada and China.

Anyway, everyone is ready to work with Legault on immigration. Great.

Singh tries to start talking about Trudeau's oil subsidies, and Roy cuts him off because it's off-topic. Bless him.

More interesting: May hits Trudeau over his changes to the Safe Third Country Agreement.

Trudeau turns his change to the STCA, which allows him to send migrants back easier, as a way of improving our ability to bring in migrants — regular and irregular.

So that's some fun doublespeak.

And now, @Alec_Castonguay is here! Are you worried about the people crossing at Roxham Road?
Trudeau: We made investments, we're making sure this crossing is secure

Castonguay: How can we ensure that our climate change efforts aren't wiped out by other, bad, countries?
May: If we raise our emissions we can't play a role in reducing them globally. We need to be a leader.

Castonguay: You want fewer immigrants, fewer refugees, less foreign funding, etc. Do we have a role in the world?
Bernier: Yes. Trudeau is a radical. Etc etc. (He doesn't answer the question, but he does blame all housing prices on migrants, which is based on a myth.)

Castonguay: By slashing foreign aid, are you turning your back on Canada's legacy on the world stage?
Scheer: Starts by saying he'll cut money to rich countries, pivots "we're going to use that money to make your life more affordable." Ouf.

Castonguay: Did you seriously plan not to arrest Meng Wanzhou?
Blanchet: Yes! We need to protect our farmers, and America isn't coming to save us.

Castonguay: Are you a protectionist?
Singh: No, but I won't sign deals that aren't good for workers and only help the rich.
C: .....like the EU and US?
S: They need more environmental protections.

Now we're on medical assistance in dying. Question on whether the law should change to open the door for those who want help dying.
May: "People should be able to choose the when and how they want to die with dignity."
Singh: "Yes. The criteria is too limited."

Blanchet: Yes.
Trudeau: "Yes." And he says he tried to find a balance ~4 years ago, and now realizes there's a need to widen the applicability.
Scheer: We'll review the decision.

(The woman who asked the question, I gather, is impacted by this personally, as she is facing a dehabilitating illness. So that segment was actually quite touching.)

Ok, bill 21 time.
Singh: No, I won't challenge now. [everything said afterwards doesn't change that answer]
Trudeau: We won't intervene at this step. [everything said afterwards doesn't change that answer]
Bernier: This is Quebec's decision, respect it.

Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau and now just repeating "I've been very clear" at each other.

We're going to abortion but, don't worry, we're coming back to forcing women to remove their religious clothing, Roy promises us.

Scheer says his usual line on abortion and then punctuates it with "LE. POINT. FIN. ALE." which....I dunno what reaction he was expecting from that but I laughed a fair bit.

Scheer accuses Blanchet of conspiring with the Parti Quebecois for sovereignty which.....yeah. That's correct, Andrew.

Blanchet: "On October 21, don't send a party to Ottawa who will un-do what you sent people to Quebec to do."

I hate it, but that's a hell of a line.

Hot damn. Do you support a remediation agreement for SNC-Lavalin?
Bernier: No. Nobody should get them.
Singh: It's hard to say this, but I agree with Bernier.
Trudeau: Yes, obviously
Blanchet: Quebec isn't corrupt! The workers did nothing wrong!
Scheer: Let prosecutors decide.

May: I agree with Bernier too!

How do you deal with candidates who say racist things?
Blanchet: Zero tolerance.
Scheer: [doesn't answer, turns it into a thing about Trudeau for some reason]
Trudeau: [doesn't answer, turns it into a thing about Trudeau for some reason]

Singh: It's about authenticity. If you apologize, but don't engage to change — then, no. But if you do something wrong, and apologize, and change, then you share our values.
May: It's a question of what level did their speech rise to? We have zero tolerance for racism, etc.

And with that, it's over. A shockingly useful, thoughtful, and well-organized/moderated debate. A total breath of fresh air from the 40 car pileup from Monday.

Trudeau and Scheer debated to a draw. They were the only ones bickering, for the most part, and consistently dodged questions as the others answered them directly. It seemed both wanted to repeat Monday.

Bernier was surprisingly good — but he was selling a candidate who hasn't been running thus far in this election. He was selling some kind of bizarro world Bernier who never tried to pivot to nationalism. Probably too late to help him.

May seemed to get the urgency of her need to improve her numbers and turned everything back to the urgency of her plan. But her weak French was obviously a hinderance. Still, some good moments regardless.

Blanchet did very well, but he was obviously facing more attacks from the others. Still making a pretty traditional Bloc pitch.

And finally Singh (who I think consensus says won the last debate.) He did well, and answered things pointedly. But no huge win.

At the scrums, The Rebel and True North Media are both asking about the baseless rumours about Trudeau's exit from West Point Grey.

This is a farce.

A judge recently decided both these outlets were journalism organizations for the purpose of this debate. I think their questions — asked entirely just to get unproven innuendo on the record — are pretty good proof they're no such thing.

Scheer, in scrums, asked about this decision to peddle conspiracy theories around why he left his school.
"You're accusing Mr. Trudeau of being a liar while your campaign is peddling in rumour and innuendo. Why?"

Scheer says he wants Trudeau to "come clean," then changes topic.

With the non-answer, reporter Tom Parry keeps going — why not bring it up?

Scheer tries to say that "mainstream outlets" are to blame for bringing up this story.

Jesus.