Before I sign off for the evening, I wanted to give you my reading of today’s events. I have kept purposefully detached, because the greatest danger for Remainers is to become wrapped up in the will-they-or-won’t-they-find-a-deal soap opera and miss the substance. 1/
The fundamentals are the same as ever. The sort of Brexit the UK is looking for, is essentially incompatible with its responsibilities under the Belfast Agreement. Because that peace treaty is not about the practicalities of where checks take place and where cameras go up. /2
That treaty is about reconciling a population, who see their national identifies as conflicting, by offering “European” as a bridging, unifying identity. Brexit trashes that miraculous fudge. The last three years have been about damage limitation. Nothing more or less. /3
The same goes for the UK’s economy. In the last three years, arguments about sunlit uplands have fallen away entirely. Leavers and Remainers, with few exceptions, have been disagreeing about the quantum of damage rather than its inevitability. That twofold damage is the price. /4
The closer the UK’s future relationship with the EU, the more the damage to peace in Ni and the UK economy will be ameliorated. This is why it is important to stay a bit detached from today’s developments. Because they merely signal what sort of ending we may get to ACT 1. 5/
As important as this first stage is, in setting up the tone and content of what is to come, all actual outcomes are still open and will be decided in Acts 2 (EU trade negotiations) and 3 (the UK’s global outlook going forward, as a now isolated, formerly significant player). /6
All a Withdrawal Agreement does, is to buy the UK the space and time to write the next two Acts. They will be written by the next PM - possibly the next several. There’s no doubt that MPs allowing Johnson a happy Act 1 ending, puts him in a powerful position to be that author. /7
The only question, therefore, for MPs is this: Considering Johnson’s influence on the story so far, all the way from the referendum campaign to today, do you trust him as the author of the country’s future for the next century? Is he the honest broker to negotiate our destiny? /8
To me, the answer is obvious, but others may be more conflicted. Make no mistake, however: This psychodrama is carefully stage-managed to engender such elation and relief when he finally waves his piece of paper, that you end up voting for it, before even reading it. /9
And the net effect of this will be the only outcome Johnson ever craved: To be handed the reins, unfettered. To be given a carte blanche for anything he plans. This is the one point - the only and last point in sight - when he can be stopped. So, think calmly and with care. /END
Night-night peeps. ~AA
