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One more small tweak to our NBA RAPTOR projections: We're now accounting for players who are recovering from severe injuries. So, e.g., Porzingis has a more pessimistic projection than before. 53eig.ht/2YZs4ec
The impact isn't *that* big, but teams that have a player recovering from a severe injury, e.g. Dallas, San Antonio (Murray), Indiana (Oladipo) each lost about a win off their projected W-L record. Maybe the biggest effect is GSW, whose title odds fell from 10% to 8% (Klay).
In general the hierarchy of NBA injuries, for worst to not-so-bad in terms of how your production is diminished upon returning, appears to be as follows:

~~WORST~~

Achilles
ACL
other knee injuries (e.g. MCL)
other lower body (foot/leg) injuries
upper body injuries

~~NOT BAD~~
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Of course not many On Here talking about this poll since it doesn't match The Narrative. This poll is perhaps a mild outlier in Biden's direction, but in the averages, there's been no sign of a Biden decline in recent polls, and only scant evidence for a Buttigieg surge.
Speaking of which, here's a chat we did about the supposed Buttigieg surge. I do think he has a decent path to the nomination! But the notion that something major has suddenly *changed* in the past week is just a completely bullshit DC/NYC insider story. 53eig.ht/2PiYF8Z
Never mind PREDICTION, i.e. what will happen in the future. It will never cease to amaze you how often the media narrative about polling fails to match what's happening RIGHT NOW in front of your eyes, if you just look at a polling average for yourself.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
OK folks! Although I suppose we'll make updates if there's big injury news before the opening tip, here are our just-about-final RAPTOR NBA projections for your record-keeping purposes. 53eig.ht/2YZs4ec
As we've filled out depth charts and monitored injury news, a relatively clear championship top tier has emerged: the HOU and LAC in the West, and MIL and PHI in the East.

DEN and UTA are also right up there in regular season W-L, but not in terms of their championship odds.
RAPTOR is skeptical of the Lakers. It thinks LeBron has aged, and it doesn't like their depth. With that said, they're a tough out in the playoffs if they make it intact.

GSW has fallen as it's become clear how poor the back half of the rotation will be + the Klay injury news.
Read 7 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Looks like the NBA has new heights and weights up, supposedly using more accurate measurements. The average player got half an inch shorter and 3 points lighter, as compared with how they were listed last season. on.nba.com/2p5cJYTx
Here are the guys who shrunk by 2 inches vs. how they were listed last season. (Nobody yet seems to have shrunk by *more* than 2 inches.) Notables: Beal, Ayton, Mitchell, Ingram, Klay.
Here are the guys who got taller, including LeBron and Durant. Ibaka grew 2 inches. Caveat to all of this: this data just went up today and sometimes newly-posted data has funky things going on with it!
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T. Greg Doucette
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Fact Check: True ✅

More or less sad AF than wearing a mask over facepaint in public?

Basically. Except using 13+ warriors at the same time to do it instead of just one 😂

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T. Greg Doucette
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You're the one who @'d me Princess

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YOU SHUT YOUR FILTHY F*CKING MOUTH RIGHT THIS INSTANT

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Sandra Newman
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One more thing on Kavanaugh before I go and do my laundry. I've written about false rape accusations before, and I know they do occur. I spent months researching this article, and I'm very familiar with the territory. qz.com/980766/the-tru…
Ford's accusation has none of the characteristics of a false accusation.
False accusations tend to paint the attacker as extraordinarily evil and deliberately cruel, not as a kid who is doing something really awful and stupid while black-out drunk.
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
One of the new risks for the global trading system: suddenly the question who “has won” in negotiations is the first one asked. Short thread.
Trade negotiations have never been an idealist’s game. Power has always played a big part. The US, e.g., gets away with stuff that other countries wouldn’t dare.
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