Thread by @aaronjamesf1

A few months ago I wrote a giant thesis on the topic of #indyref2020 and it was as much a journey of learning for me- I entered into it with no preconceptions at all, and finished it believing that it would happen- indeed, part of me feels it should. (THREAD)

My first thoughts were around the 2014 vote and the arguments in that. The first one I remembered was Cameron- and others telling Scotland that the only way it could remain at the EU table was by remaining part of the UK. (2)

A vote to stay would change things, he said. It would be a partnership of equals. Scotland would get more powers and be respected.

Like most Tory promises, this has not happened. Indeed, if anything, the Scottish representatives, the SNP have been treated with contempt. (3)

Take the other day for example. Corbyn made his speech. Tories responded. When @IanBlackfordMP stood up, the Tories in particular left the chamber en masse. If it's OK to stay to boo Corbyn, like they do- what makes the Scottish view any less important? (4)

@IanBlackfordMP One thing was screamingly obvious from my studies. That is, Scotland wants to be part of the EU. It wants to be treated equally. If it had both of those, we wouldn't be talking about #indyref2020. The same conditions that led to the first vote would be eradicated (5)

@IanBlackfordMP But it hasn't. If anything, Scotland is more marginalised now than it has ever been. That's ideal breeding ground for the arguments of Independence. And do you know what? I don't blame them in the slightest. It's true- when you have nothing left, you look for something else (6)

@IanBlackfordMP And for Scotland, now the promises of remain have gone, what else have they got? There might be risks of independence, that is true. However, when they feel there's nothing left for them as part of the UK- no equality, certainly no EU seat- why stay? (7)

@IanBlackfordMP Another thing I learnt is the Scottish are very proud of their identity. They're Scottish first- and certainly not English. Therefore their raison d'etre is to defend Scotland. It's an identity going back hundreds of years. Scotland is its own country. (8)

@IanBlackfordMP I'm no economist but I think once the original storm has been rode, Scotland could potentially thrive independently. It's got a lot going for it. I don't think Scotland sees itself as abandoning the UK, rather the UK abandoned it. (9)

@IanBlackfordMP It's not about to place landmines at the border or expel anyone who refuses a plate of haggis. It'll still have connections to the UK and most #indyref2020 supporters I've spoken to feel passionately about that. It's about Scotland deciding its own destiny as a country. (10)

@IanBlackfordMP Here's why I think it'll win- those who voted to stay based on the prospects of more success as part of the UK are becoming increasingly convinced now they've realised they were fed a bed of lies.

Worth remembering Scotland is an equal- it is not the UK's Prisoner. (11)

@IanBlackfordMP For what it's worth, I wish in my heart of hearts none of this was happening. I wish we weren't in such a state where Scotland feels it has to leave the UK- but I do not blame them in the slightest. Maybe the UK has left Scotland already...(12)

@IanBlackfordMP And if you want someone to blame. Blame the Tories. They created this mess. They stiffed Scotland after they voted to stay, they chose the EU Ref rabble to save their own skins, they've excluded Scotland from being part of the process into the future. (13)

@IanBlackfordMP And finally. I don't say this as a hardcore SNP supporter, or diehard Scot. I'm a Cornishman who politically leans towards Liberal Socialism. But I'm open minded enough to learn and understand arguments, and here's what I think.

#Indyref is coming, and I think they'll win. (14)