Everyone is asking me for a guess on what will happen. It’s impossible. At the moment it’s marginal. Either side can win by a handful or lose by a handful. This may shift over the next few days, but anyone selling you confident estimates is talking utter shite. (Cont’d)
The only four helpful things I can say (and they are merely contextual) are:
1. It’s clear the EU is thoroughly sick of us and want the mess finally resolved. But don’t be spooked by EU “no extension” rumblings. They said the same before the May deal was voted on, to help her.
1. It’s clear the EU is thoroughly sick of us and want the mess finally resolved. But don’t be spooked by EU “no extension” rumblings. They said the same before the May deal was voted on, to help her.
2. If the deal fails, the law near enough requires an extension to be requested. The EU will grudgingly grant it, because they do not want no deal. If the deal succeeds, we get plenty more bites at the cherry to attach a confirmatory referendum to it in the implementation stages.
3. If we go to the EU27 asking for an extension in order to have a confirmatory referendum, they will grab it with both hands and put out some bunting - because it resolves the issue definitively one way or another and allows for a best-case scenario. Why wouldn’t they?
4. If we ask for an extension to have another general election, they may say no - last thing they want is to deal with a THIRD PM asking for yet a different deal. They see it as bogus anyway, since all of Corbyn’s aims are achievable through the next negotiation stage.
