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My latest, thinking through how negotiations between the UK and EU would play out after no deal. cer.eu/insights/how-w… 1/
Any mitigation by the EU will be limited, and will require the UK to sign up to the main provisions of the withdrawal agreement. 2/
There are strict legal constraints about what the EU can offer the UK if it does sign up to those provisions. There could be a fairly quick deal on goods to unblock the Dover-Calais crossing. 3/
But help with disruption in services trade and migration will be much more difficult - that would be a 'mixed agreement' that would require ratification at the national level (and Wallonia) politico.eu/article/walloo… 4/
So, even if the UK conceded to the EU's demands, it could not get back to the transition. Membership of the single market would be gone. While the worst of the disruption could be mitigated, the economic costs of no deal are likely to be large AND persistent. 5/5
