Quick thread on my latest cost of Brexit estimate. The economy is 2.9% smaller than it would've been if the ref had gone the other way. 1/ 
The way the estimate works is this - an algorithm takes economic data from 2009 to the referendum from 22 countries. It selects those countries whose economies are most similar to Britain's. 2/
Those countries form the doppelganger.
Germany = 32% of the doppelganger
US = 28%
Australia = 17%
Iceland = 9%
Greece = 6%
Luxembourg and Iceland = 4% each
3/
Germany = 32% of the doppelganger
US = 28%
Australia = 17%
Iceland = 9%
Greece = 6%
Luxembourg and Iceland = 4% each
3/
Then we compare the economic growth of remain UK against the real UK. The result is that the real UK is 2.9% smaller than remain UK. 4/
We can also compare how constituent parts of GDP did in the doppelganger and in the UK. The investment data is pretty nasty since the beginning of 2019. Investment in real UK is only 2% higher than June 2016. Remain UK = 10% higher. 5/
Consumption is a bit lower. But look at exports/imports: the hoped-for rebalancing towards exports after the sterling devaluation hasn't happened. (I didn't think it would - here are my thoughts from Oct 2016. cer.eu/insights/sterl…)
In summary, the central Brexiteer argument – that Britain could regain sovereignty without damaging its economy – has so far proven to be false. /ends
