Thread by @KellerZoe

Election wargaming: Boris Johnson taking 'enormous gamble' in hoping Brexit gains will balance out Remain losses telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

Conservatives and their bid to win Leaver's hearts.
Electoral analysts have said the Conservative PM can reclaim a majority by commanding the confidence of Leave voters - something he so far seems to be succeeding at.

In 41 Brexit-backing seats the Conservatives need a swing (compared to 2017 GE) of less than 7.5% to win, and these will become the main target of their campaign. Experts warn that claiming this Leave vote will be difficult and the Brexit Party the biggest threat.

At the same time, the Conservatives must defend more than a dozen Remain-backing seats with vulnerable majorities, in the face of a resurgent Lib Dems.

The targets: 41 seats where
- 2016 Leave vote > 55%
- Conservatives need a swing =< 7.5%
32 are in North England, the Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber: all traditionally Labour.

Boris would win a small majority if able to:
- flip even 10 of these 41 seats
- while holding the seats won in 2017
A uniform swing of 5% from Labour to Cons would win 28 of these seats, including the marginals of Dudley North, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Crewe and Nantwich.

The defence: 15 vulnerable Remain areas
It’s easy to see why they’ve adopted a pro-Brexit policy.
Of the 316 seats won in 2017, 238 were > 50% Leave. It is unlikely, given the Conservative policy on Brexit, that many of these will change hands.

But some vulnerable Remain-backing constituencies will be a challenge for Boris to keep hold of.
17 constituencies 2016 Remain for > 60% 2 of which have Tory majorities < 20%.
Con majorities < 5%: Richmond Park, Finchley, Golders Green in London; Stirling, Gordon in Scotland.

The key Conservative targets in the general election

The balance between Leave gains / Remain losses will define the election. Joe Twyman (Deltapoll): the PM has a "difficult tightrope to walk". He needs a two-pronged msg:
to con remainers: Party identity trumps Brexit
to lab leavers: Brexit identity trumps Party

He must frame the election in two ways.
1. As a choice between a Con government with a WA deal ready or a Corbyn government.
2. As a choice between people voice and Brexit achieved or people voice silenced by the elites and Brexit thwarted

Professor Ed Fieldhouse (University of Manchester and the British Election Study): "If Boris commands a large majority of Leave voters — and they aren't squeezed out by the Brexit Party — then that should be enough to get them a majority. A hard line on Brexit is crucial."

In 2017 only solidly Leave seats actually moved to the Cons. Those with a smaller majority were not swayed by May's 2017 Brexit message. Seats in England and Wales only reliably swung to the Conservatives if they had a Leave vote in excess of 60 per cent.

Lord Hayward said: "serious risk" of losing seats in London, Scotland and South England. But, pointing to recent council election results where the Labour vote has dropped, "there are quite a few marginal seats where leave Labour voters will peel off and hand him a majority".

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