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Nicolai von Ondarza @NvOndarza
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
There is a growing sentiment in the UK that the EU is trying to force through 'Versailles-like terms' on it in the #Brexit negotiations, as expressed here by @pmdfoster:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

It is wrong and dangerous, not only because of the explosive historical analogy:
First, the current offer of the EU27 is not a 'bare bones FTA'.

CETA is the deepest FTA of the EU so far, and a UK-EU DCFTA would be deeper still.

It only now seems to be becoming clear that the single market is indeed much more than a free trade area.
Second, the 'Versailles' feeling feeds directly from the narrative that the UK could leave the EU without significant economic consequences.

It is not disrespectful of the #Brexit referendum to maintain that there is a trade-off between sovereignty and economic integration.
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More from @NvOndarza see all

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Given the political dynamics in #Italy, it is time to dust off my analysis from 2016 - 'Eurosceptics in Power' - on how Eurosceptic parties have influenced EU policy making both in the EP and when in nat. government

swp-berlin.org/en/publication…

Four points stand out in particular:
First, Italy is not the first instance of eurosceptic and/or populist parties entering national government.

Elite consensus on EU integration has been waning for a long time - reflecting the more sceptical attitude in many member states.
Second, in decision-making at the EU level they acted (largely) constructive. Voting data from the Council revealed no strong increase in vetos or 'no' votes after Eurosceptic parties entered nat. governments.

Exceptions to this are migration and institutional questions
Read 7 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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Back in Berlin from this year's British-German #Königswinter Conference.

The best summary was incidentally provided by a border guard at Heathrow, who said to me upon seeing my destination:

"Please tell your friends we are still European". /1
A few more impressions: Everything started off with a clear political signal as the German official delegation arrived in the UK en route from Dublin.

Main message: EU-27 are the priority, and Berlin is 100% behind Ireland. /2
Most striking was the mood between Germans and Brits:

Brexit now seems to be more and more an accepted reality, with less grudge.

The deep regret is still there, though with a willingness to look ahead. /3
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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1) Germany’s Europe Minister @MiRo_SPD tells me #Brexit negotiations have been paused so the U.K. side can ‘go into a huddle’ - and ‘see how far they can go at home’. Mr Roth said the EU was also mulling over if it had any room to manoeuvre on its Irish border position
2) Depending on the outcome, Mr Roth told me, EU leaders would then decide whether or not to go ahead and call a November seal the deal #Brexit summit
3) If no seal the deal summit called in November on #Brexit, Germany’s Europe Minister told me there may be a No Deal summit convened amongst the EU 27 members instead
Read 7 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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I've been struck by this article on how lack of EU carers forcing women to care for elderly people after #Brexit is a feature, not a bug of Brexit.
Brexit is the project on putting people in their place. 1/

newstatesman.com/politics/femin…
First and foremost, Brexit is the project of putting EU citizens who come here in their place.
How dare you come here taking jobs without having to jump through our visa hoops?
How dare you come here on equal terms with British workers? 2/
Post-Brexit, the idea is to put EU citizens in their place by stopping free movement. Free movement bothers Brexiters because it means foreigners come on an equal footing, as I've argued here 3/
theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/he…
Read 17 tweets
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*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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There are concerns - on both sides - that translating December #brexit deal on Ireland into draft legal text risks blowing up Brexit talks in March. My latest /1

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
The draft text is due in Feb 28 (a date that’s already slipped several times) and understand it will cover the three options - A B C set out in Para 49 of Joint Report /2
The issue seems to be that only Option C is capable of being fleshed out in full detail - or at least that’s Brussels/Dublin contention. /3
Read 8 tweets

Trending hashtags

#PeoplesVoteMarch #Brexit #Fraud #timefortruth #Article7 #HarryLeslieSmith #NHS #EU27 #dontmentionthewar #EUWithdrawalBill #Tories #Spain #BrexitDK #xenophobia #challenge #Chequers #brexit #A50 #Hungary #underreported #Tory #HostileEnvironment #timefortruths #CPC18 #PeoplesVote

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