Thread by @Chxta

Just after its independence in the early 1960s #Nigeria was self sufficient with regards to rice.

In that decade, annual production and consumption numbers were generally between 230 and 280 KMT.

By 1979 with the increase in population to 79 million people from 54 million a decade earlier, consumption had risen to 845KMT p.a., whilst production numbers had fallen behind at 372KMT.

Why did Nigerian eating habits begin to shift in this period?

The shift towards rice began in the big cities as people got busier and had less time to prepare heavier meals like yam or cassava.

There are simply more "fast" options to eat your rice with than yams.

This is the same reason why noodles has gotten really popular.

Then there is practicality. In general terms grain lasts longer in the store than tubers.

#Rice is a grain, yams and cassava are tubers.

This makes rice cheaper in the long run, and better for when it's not in season.

Then there is infrastructure.

In all of this talk we are still pretending not to know that storing farm produce in #Nigeria is tough, and getting them to the cities from the farms is even tougher.

The losses make for grim reading.

Over time, starting from Operation Feed the Nation, there have been attempts, at least on paper, to boost rice production.

With the boost from various agric initiatives in late 1970s to early 1980s, production grew to almost 2,000KMT by 1990, just shy of consumption numbers.

Unfortunately, production barely increased in the 1990s while the consumption rate continued to grow at the back of increased population growth.

By 2011, consumption volumes had almost doubled production at 4,800 KMT and 2906KMT respectively.

Then came the aggressive initiatives by the Jonathan administration between 2011 and 2015 and subsequently by the Buhari administration post-2015 which has led to highest production values ever at 4,900KMT.

However, this is yet to catch up with consumption which is presently estimated at 7,300KMT, a deficit of 2,400KMT.

#Nigeria's population is presently estimated at 200 million and rising at a rate of more than 3%.

Rice production rate has been rising at less than 3%.

Like the growth of the economy, rice production growth needs to outstrip population growth rate by 2:1 for up to a decade if Nigeria is to again become self-sufficient in rice production.

Please watch the @sbmintelligence video on this subject for more