PSEPHOLOGY CORNER DAY 1
There has been a lot of talk already about “Workington Man”.
In fact all the seats in Cumbria are interesting. Workington is probably one of the least important of the collection of Lab/Con fights: Barrow, Carlisle, Copeland and Workington.
There has been a lot of talk already about “Workington Man”.
In fact all the seats in Cumbria are interesting. Workington is probably one of the least important of the collection of Lab/Con fights: Barrow, Carlisle, Copeland and Workington.
Overtime, Labour has gradually been losing its grip on the county. Carlisle and Copeland were reliably Labour seats, even in the 80s when Barrow was not. Carlisle has been lost to the party since 2010. Copeland was lost in the 2017 by-election and did not return at the general.
Of the county’s six seats, Workington has been the most solidly Labour. If the party really does lose it, it’s in big trouble. In eight of the last ten general elections, Labour’s vote has exceeded 50% of the total votes cast.
Admittedly, the two occasions where it dipped under 50 were recent, However in 2017, it recovered markedly to 51.1%. So although Hayman’s majority of just under 4000 might look quite small, with a % maj of 9.4% it shouldn’t be so vulnerable. It’s Lab’s 53rd most marginal seat.
The last time the Lab vote really fell back was 2015. Then, UKIP scored a fantastic performance, reaching nearly 20% from nowhere. They ate a bit into the Tory share but actually seemed to take at least as many votes from Labour.
It’s in seats like this that Farage and the Brexit party actually helps the Tories. With the Con vote at around 40% it’s unlikely to be much buttressed by many direct Lab/Con switchers. IF Tory vote holds up but Lab’s falls back towards BXP, Cons could come through the middle.
My money would be that that doesn’t happen, though Lab maj could well come down a bit. Nonetheless, demographically, it is the sort of seat which is slowly drifting away from Lab.
-One of highest % of UK born residents of any constituency
->50% of population over 45
-99% white
-One of highest % of UK born residents of any constituency
->50% of population over 45
-99% white
61% of the constituency also voted leave. Nonetheless, it retains some traditional characteristics which should help Lab. Over 40% of population are employed in manufacturing and therefore greater prop of pop is still unionised.
Essentially, if BXP vote is strong, it will come down to which of the Lab/Con votes is stickier. Overall, Labour should still hold it.
Carlisle is another interesting seat not that far away. Historically Labour since 1945 save for a decade from the mid 1950s, then it was lost on a big swing in 2010 and has stayed in the Tory column ever since.
Tories actually ran Labour close in Carlisle in the 1980s. But there was a collapse in Labour support in 2010. Tories’ vote has reached new highs ever since with nearly 40% of the vote in 2017. It’s now the Tories 45th most marginal seat.
Again, all depends on those last two lines, the Lib Dems and the BXP, which grows the most and from where the bleeding mostly comes. Scenario BXP eats into Tory vote, Labour ekes out a win. Scenario Lib Dem growth matters more, maybe BXP affects Lab too and Tory lead consolidates
Possibly it all happens at once. That’s why this election is so unpredictable as there are plenty of seats like it. Nonetheless clear Tory growth here this decade, a strong Leave vote and demographic drift towards the Conservatives, probably imply Conservatives keep the seat.
And that’s why, with Scotland out of play and with seats like Carlisle potentially out of reach and drifting away from the party, it is so hard for Labour (which first won the seat in 1922 and kept it for much of the time since, until 2010) to win a majority.
