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Inclined to agree. There is no free lunch

Any painful policy has to have a very significant "upside risk" to be worth undertaking

Art 370 revocation, though painful, presented that long-run upside risk, outweighing short-term costs
This reminds me of a funny line from a favorite movie of mine - "A Canterbury Tale" (1944)

Where a character says -

"Did I ever tell you about old Dad Butler...
who killed the fly on his baby's head with a sledgehammer?"
Shah and team may insist that the fly will be killed, the baby will be alive and kicking, and no net harm will be done

But I doubt that
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More from @shrikanth_krish see all

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Śrīkānta Kṛṣṇamācārya
@shrikanth_krish
Protein is overrated by most people

For a 2000 calorie diet, the prescribed amount is 50 g of protein

Most people in the West eat a LOT more than that

Even Indian vegetarians with a decent intake of milk, curd, pulses probably fall just short of 50g. Not by much
In fact I take it back -

A lacto vegetarian with a decent intake of curd, milk, pulses crosses 50g per day quite easily
Some arguments against the vilification of carbo-hydrates that is de rigueur these days in certain circles

hindustantimes.com/fitness/low-ca…
Read 3 tweets
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Śrīkānta Kṛṣṇamācārya
@shrikanth_krish
China's share of World GDP (PPP) is 19% today
Up from 2% in 1980!!

Yet the influence of Chinese culture on the way we live is very marginal

There's Chinese food. But what else?

Is it fair to say China's cultural influence is v slight relative to its heft in the global economy?
India's share of World GDP in PPP terms today is close to 8%, up from 2.5% in 1980.

Way lower than China's 19%

But culturally India appears to wield a greater influence, at least relative to China
Indian food, I agree, is a somewhat behind Chinese food. In popularity

But then Indian showbiz is definitely way ahead of Chinese showbiz in terms of capturing eyeballs around the world
Read 15 tweets
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Śrīkānta Kṛṣṇamācārya
@shrikanth_krish
Mein Kampf has sold more copies in India over the years than Churchill's History of Second World war, or his history of the English Speaking Peoples

Though Churchill was a better writer, and also his subjects should be of more interest to the general public
How do we rationalize this -

1. "Extremes" appeal to people more. As simple as that

2. Indians are more inclined to fascist, authoritarian politics than we assume (I don't buy this)

3. There is an aversion to Churchill (for obvious reasons) that doesn't exist w.r.t. Hitler
4. India has traditionally had a weak state for millennia
We live with the reality of a weak state, and are too familiar with its shortcomings

So there is a craving for a "strong" state/leader who can "get things done"

There's less worry about the downsides of a strong state
Read 4 tweets

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Dave Guarino
@allafarce
I've been wrestling with this idea for the past week or so that I'm having trouble articulating without being overly abstract, but let me try:

I think much of the pain we see in "bad technology" (esp. in government) is the myth that it's a free lunch — "solutions" without costs.
The problem is that any effective benefits that come from adding technology in some area *do* come with tradeoffs — they're just often unspoken tradeoffs, taken for granted by organizations with technology at their core.

Here are a few examples:
User-centered design: I think a lot of people construe (and/or sell) it as a set of methods that just "makes things better".

But the tradeoff is real: it's in decisionmaking, in power.

Having *users* guide decisions means other stakeholders wield less power. That's real.
Read 15 tweets
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Gregory Claeys
@gregclaeys
As Lagarde's name is mentioned for the ECB's presidency, and given that she is not a monetary expert or has no CB experience, it is interesting to know what she thinks/knows about monetary policy. So far I have only found the following speech from 2013: kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympo…
What is in this speech reflects mainstream (IMF) views on monetary policy: unconventional tools have been very useful, even if they could have some financial stability side effects in the long run
And this speech from September 2012 (not especially on monetary policy imf.org/en/News/Articl…) suggests that she is supportive of the ECB's OMT programme (which is crucial in my view)
Read 7 tweets
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Olivier Blanchard
@ojblanchard1
Japan has a virulent case of ``secular stagnation’’, i.e. weak private domestic demand. To maintain full employment, it has needed and still needs aggressive monetary and fiscal policies. Monetary policy is doing everything it can. The burden thus falls on fiscal policy.
There are three reasons to want to maintain, or even consider increasing, primary deficits. The first one is to maintain demand. If the fiscal stance is tightened, what will sustain demand? If, for some reason, private demand picks up, then there may be room. But not now.
The second reason is that inflation is below target. It would be desirable to get there. This requires overheating the economy for some time, to get wage and price pressure up. Slightly larger increases in primary deficits would help achieve it.
Read 8 tweets
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Randy Pitchford
@DuvalMagic
@LilMcFlurry There is an important question I think is worth asking: What are these company’s values and given that, which of these companies is more likely to progress at the fastest rate on behalf of the customer and the developer/publisher?
@LilMcFlurry The answer to this question is very useful to the answer to the questions you asked...
@LilMcFlurry It is possible that the EGS does not successfully complete enough features for the store before Borderlands 3 launches to be “good enough”. That’s a risk. It’s one that our publishing partner, 2k, was willing to take. I’m not mad about that decision or the risk, but it’s real.
Read 56 tweets
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Jawad Mian
@jsmian
Some thoughts on Silicon Valley's endgame. We have long said the biggest risk to the bull market is an Uber IPO. That is now upon us.
1) In 2015, venture capitalist Bill Gurley predicted “dead unicorns" and that all these private valuations are "fake." Now he has reconsidered his view, “You have to adjust to the reality and play the game on the field.” There are no more disbelievers, except @chamath.
2) The value of the Nasdaq grew from around 1,000 points in 1995 to more than 5,000 in 2000 at the bubble peak, which mirrors the extreme jump in US unicorn valuations from $100 billion to about $500 billion in the past five years.
Read 28 tweets
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ANSHUL KUNDAJE
@anshulkundaje
Solid paper by @MKarimzade and @michaelhoffman . Some comments to follow.
In summary, the paper proposes a powerful imputation based approach for predicting TF binding in NEW cell types. Note that this is the practical prediction problem. Not cross-validation, where u simply hold out chromosomes in cell types where u already have TF ChIP-seq data 1/
Prediction in new cell types is the scenario we proposed to evaluate in the ENCODE-DREAM TF binding challenge. Kudos to the authors for evaluating using this formulation which is the practical scenario for using the predictor. 2/
Read 53 tweets

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