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The world doesn't need another take on "the value factor."

In contrast Jim Simons gets it exactly right: "Statistic predictor signals erode. It can be five years or 10 years. You have to keep coming up with new things because the market is against us." 25iq.com/2014/07/09/a-d…
Factor investing enhance returns in a index fund. Enough investors making irrational choices can create a factor that can be arbitraged for a period. The value of that factor can last as long as investors continue to make that irrational choice. That can work until it doesn't.
"Gradually the world wises up. You can run your Geiger counter over the rubble [looking for given factor] and it won't click." So you need to find a new factor.

Or completely change approach by using value as an analytical style (e.g., buy a stock like AAPL at a bargain price)
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"We’re starting to see a period where valuation is going to be the driver for future returns"

As opposed to all the other times when the tooth fairy drives future returns? reuters.com/article/us-usa…
A P/E ratio is only a shortcut for valuation.

"The forward P/E ratio for Stoxx 600 is 15.4 beow the 19.3 forward P/E of tS&P 500"

Contra: "Expected long-term cash flows, discounted by the cost of capital—not reported earnings—determine stock prices." expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
"Earnings offer a shortcut, freeing investors from the subjective and time-consuming need to assess long-term cash-flow prospects."

...Earnings are useful in valuing stocks only if they help forecast a company’s future cash flows." Rappaport and Mauboussin
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ Andy Rachleff on "product market fit" (a term Andy invented):

"Don Valentine used to say: 'I'm looking to invest in businesses that can screw everything up and still succeed because customers will pull the product out of their hands.'" tim.blog/2019/11/25/sta…
2/ Andy Rachleff: "One of the mistakes people make is that they iterate on the "what." They shouldn't. But they should iterate on the 'who' and the 'how' (the business model).'

"One of the best things about teaching is how much you get to learn."
3/ Andy Rachleff: "Product market fit exists when you have proven a value hypothesis. A value hypothesis is the what, the who and the how- what are you going to build, who is the relevant market and the how is the business model."
Product market fit precedes growth hypothesis.
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Charlie Munger on why comedy on Financial Twitter is useful:

"To make teaching endurable, it has to have enough wiseassery in it. And we do." "We’ve done a lot of preaching to not much effect. To the extent you’re working on it, you’re on the side of angels, but lots of luck.”
Munger once asked Buffett how he wanted to be remembered and Buffett said, “As a teacher.” Munger said he'd like to remembered that way too, but more likely he'll be remembered as a "wiseass."

google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc…
"Humor must not professedly teach, and it must not professedly preach, but it must do both if it would live forever.”

Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain)
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SC Constitution Bench begins hearing on interpretation of Section 24 of New #LandAcquisition Act
SG Tushar Mehta is arguing now
Usage of punctuation. It is submitted that punctuation has been used to resolve conflicts. Citing AIR 2007. The entire construction hangs on the punctuation.

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Dr Charles Omole
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THE 12 Ps OF PERSONAL & BRAND VALUE - What Determines Value Proposition

What is it that determines the value people place on things or people? What informs or affects the Value folks place on things or people? I call it the 12Ps of Value Proposition. More value=More money.
1. PERSONAL CONFIDENCE
The first P is the value determined by personal confidence and belief. In other words, people will not give you value if you don't have confidence in your own value. You project greater value the more confident you are about what you have.
A good salesman is a confident salesman. He can sell anything to anybody. It is important for u to understand that u need confidence to project your value. You might not have noticed this; but rich people walk in a particular way; confidence is written all over the way they walk.
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Five years ago, on the advice of colleagues from the US, our patron-Mary Mungai-reached out to #IFNA to share the work #NurseAnesthetists are doing in Kenya. In IFNA we found an international home where we could share experiences & learn from our peers across the world 1/
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1-ALL IMMIGRATION should be HALTED for a five year period. No asylum, no refugees, no immigration of any kind, until we clean up the mess we have. If we are not finished cleaning up and throwing out the illegals, securing the borders, then we add another five year increment.
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molly 🐶
@socialistdogmom
6:30pm and we’ve got zero councilors seated on the dais. another charlottesville city council meeting, another late start. ⏰

charlottesville.org/home/showdocum…
only three minutes late night! doing better than usual.
only around 2/3 full tonight, which is kind of surprising given the variety of issues on the agenda tonight.
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