Thread by @RufusPeabody

This thread will go through some of the #CFBPlayoff scenarios using results from @MasseyPeabody simulations and our model predicting the committee's behavior:

(1) Favorites all win.

Likelihood: 33%

OSU/LSU/Clemson 100%
Oklahoma 60%
Utah 39%
Georgia 1%

(2) OSU/Clem/Georgia win. OSU/Clem 100%
a) OU/Utah win (12%):
LSU 95%
UGA 94%
OU 7%
Utah 4%

b) Baylor/Utah win (3.2%):
LSU 98%
UGA 97%
Utah 4%
Baylor 1%

c) Baylor/Oreg win (1.3%)
LSU 99%
UGA 98%
Baylor 3%

d) OU/Oreg win (5.4%)
LSU 97%
UGA 95%
OU 8%

(3) OSU/LSU/Clem win. OSU/LSU/Clem 100%

a) Utah/Baylor win (likelihood 8.3%):

Utah 57%
Baylor 40%
Georgia 3%

b) Oregon/Baylor win (3.8%)
Baylor 88%
Georgia 11%
Alabama/OU/Oregon <1%

c) OU/Oregon win (14.9%)
OU 96%
UGA 4%
Oregon/Alabama <1%

(4) Clemson loses! (Clemson loss prob 2.4%)
If all other faves win...
OU 88%
Utah 84%
Clemson 15%
Georgia 12%

Overall, Clemson has a 20% shot if they lose. Obviously, if other favorites lose, that helps them.

(5) Wisconsin knocks off Ohio St, while other favorites win (6.6%):

Ohio St 98%
Oklahoma 57%
Utah 30%
Wisconsin 14%
Georgia 1%

If Georgia also knocks off LSU... (2.3%)
LSU 98%
Georgia 96%
Ohio St 93%
OU 9%
Utah 3%
Wisconsin 2%