Thread by @WGTA_FPL

Talisman and Value update - GW14 (~1/3 of season gone)

Accompanying the live stream, here's a thread on how WGTA's own custom #FPL stats are looking right now

Read summer articles (long reads) to get up to speed if unfamiliar:

whogottheassist.com/value-in-fpl-2…

whogottheassist.com/talisman-theor…

Individual points = removing appearance and team-based scores (eg clean sheets)
Means focus on positive contribution

Here's #FPL team individual points overall
LEI keeping up with big boys
@ahopcroft13 will love AVL are 6th rn: Grealish, El-Ghazi & McGinn doing bits
Lol MUN/WAT

Who's scoring them?
ARS, MUN, EVE are the most talisman reliant sides
Note Ings' %diff from sloppy 2nd is a smidge better than the still excellent Vardy's
Some clubs (eg LIV TOT BUR) not reliant on 1 guy (nb does not mean in #FPL there isn't a best option)
Lol @ Foster/Willems

Vardy has nabbed the most individual points overall
He's 18 ahead of 2nd placed Mane, who himself is only 1 ahead of KdB (who looks a strong #FPL keep)
Auba, Tammy and Rash doing well too
KdB, Kun and Raz divvying MCI up, but Dilva also in top 20 at 7.6m
Puli/Mousse on the charge

In terms of % of team individual points, the rankings show Rash, Pukki, Auba & Ings scoring over 33% - high xGI
Richarlison surprise entry
Many key #FPL assets in high 20s
Not much between Vardy and Jimmy (like last year)
Pukki/TC/Krul source of ~80% NOR
Salah not in top 20

Vardy a key example for talisman theory
Simple concept - but proven in the numbers
Rarely worth Rikering for No2 choice to "cover" when you can have the no1 pick
LEI a great #FPL side to load on - diverse attacking contributors AND a clear talisman in this guy

Value now
Value in #FPL diverges from price over the course of the season, meaning it's a measure of player performance commensurate to their cost
It's conceptual - you know Lundstram at 4.0 is great value, but his value isn't his cost (obviously, it far exceeds that)

There are 564 players. Count them (or use excel)
Many (as shown on @fpl_shiny's scatterplot) are in the dumpster and will never be spoken about
Those labelled below tho are some of the core of players that are "live" #FPL assets we'd consider owning
Lundstram/Vardy huge outliers

Lundstram outrageous
Vardy a hero across both talisman and value
Without those outliers, Pereira and Soy are the top value #FPL players - RP particularly, even at a luxury price of 6.4
Dominated by defs/GK
Where are the mids? Only 2 of them. Goes against the grain of 3-4-3/3-5-2

Mids have the lowest average value
Defenders and an elite band of forwards in top 10 - top mid > 8th best defender/6th best striker by this measure (nb does not mean we should sell our mids on #FPL)
Expect this to be shaken up by Spurs and Pulisic, as well as Mousset

Do love Value, but it's a long term measure that is more predictive as a concept than for emerging players
Week to week, you need to weigh it up as part of a wider body of evidence to make your #FPL decisions - same with Talisman
Often value is staring you in the face anyway

That's it, hope you enjoyed

Catch up with the YouTube live here if you want to hear further:

https://twitter.com/WGTA_FPL/status/1202153807158939648?s=20

#FPL

Thanks to
@fpl_shiny
@MitchellSt
@fpl_vran
For their generosity with their time and dealing with my questions on the data, much appreciated fellas

Assuming readers are smart enough to know that this isn't claiming to solve the game and should be used as part of the overall picture

Thanks for reading, we'll be back next week for the pod as usual as well as maybe I'll do a solo little video to try out (with less choppiness) in next few days
💜♻️ appreciated, will come back to it at 2/3s way through #FPL season
Garak gif just cos

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