This might be under-performing players, fixture swings, inflexible team structure or a host of other common issues. The first question is likely to be 'Is this actually a problem at all?' It's often the case in FPL (& fantasy games generally)...
If there is a clear opportunity to improve our team & we have a reasonable degree of confidence that a move should be made, then we need to collect relevant data so we can make an informed decision. This is easier said than done. A decade back...
So you've spent far more of July researching players, fixtures swings & hunting for value than any sane person probably should. You're very well prepared for the coming season & based on your exhaustive research your 47th team draft is a well oiled...
Imo an average of betting odds that take bookmaker's margins into account is probably the best way to predict future performance (after all the bookmakers all use powerful algorithms - why shouldn't we take advantage of the sum of them) while imo...
We've gathered the relevant data & we're in a position to weigh the evidence & make a decision. From a purely scientific perspective we might be best served by making the final decision in a vacuum but this is real life & we're constantly bombarded...
The most pernicious enemy of all in #FPL is your own mind. We are vulnerable to a host of biases that cloud & redirect our thinking. Even awareness of them doesn't offer total protection. Here are some well known ones that will affect our decisions...
Endowment Effect - giving greater value to what we already have rather than what we don't possess.
Recency Bias - we give too much weight to recent information & events.
Bandwagon Effect - where we do something primarily because others are doing it, regardless of our own beliefs.
Sadly, total avoidance of bias in FPL decisions isn't a realistic proposition. We are all the product of our evolutionary history & view info through the lens of our experiences to reach conclusions that are at least to some degree, subjective.
Ask yourself some tough questions, challenge your notions & always try to develop your critical thinking skills.
This doesn't just mean did we score more points as a product of this single decision (although keeping a record of this is wise). What it really means is don't worry about outcomes so much. Just because player 1 scored big in the GW we chose to...
If the decision looks sound based on the information that you had access to at the time it was made then you are on the right track.
Don't chase previous outcomes.
Quality decision making will always pay off in the long run.