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Here's my @GENmag piece explaining why "electability" polls are inherently flawed and shouldn't be used in pres nominations bc they shape media narratives that can make or break presidential candidacies, disadvantaging lesser known candidates.

gen.medium.com/electability-p…
@GENmag Neil's comment reminds me. Some stuff could not make it into the article, but I'd like to add it here. First, as I pointed out in an earlier article on this topic, candidate favorablity and "unfamiliar w the candidate" are inversely related & when UWTC is high, favorability is
low. And using ratios can not control for this! As I explain below, the folly of ratio controls becomes apparent as you move down the list.
by necessity low.
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪
@RachelBitecofer
Have you always wished you could take a class w me? Then I have the book for you! Via an examination of 2016- let teach you how to analyze & examine these presidential nominations & elections through the eyes of a political scientist. And unlike other
books on this topic- you don't just get the "what happened" you get the "why it happened." If you want to understand 2020, this is the MUST READ manual. Blurb ≠ reading the actual book (BTW: typos in post. WWW should be WWC)

palgrave.com/gp/blogs/persp…
The free sample chapter available is also the most important one in the book. However, one chapter ≠ whole book. Let me know, if you have access ($) issues.

amazon.com/Unprecedented-…
Read 3 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪
@RachelBitecofer
Watching this debacle over @GovKemp's pick to fill the Isakson senate seat in GA- which will face a special "jungle" run off in Nov '20. The GOP needs Loeffler to stay decently competitive against the Ds who are going to run double-header candidates (both of GA's senate seats are
open). Appointment of a Trump loyalist and ideologue like Collins, which is what the GOP base & Trump are pushing, is the exact opposite of what the Rs need strategically. They must be frustrated that @mattgaetz is butting his head in here and screwing up their chances to hold
the seat. If they can push the seat to Loeffler, the Ds are going to need to nominate someone like @senatorjen to counterbalance it bc she'd be the only that could offset Loeffler's advantages in the suburbs. Which means the @sendavidperdue seat would NEED a female, AA to run.
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪
@RachelBitecofer
What @Redistrict ignores is that we have the entrance of one former swing state into this list. Plus, while VA (as well as CO BTW) are exiting swing status due to education there are several states moving INTO swing state status in 2020 bc of it (NC, GA, TX, and AZ). Yes, there's
long term realignment of white, working class voters away from the Ds, set into motion before Trump & will continue after him just as the realignment of college educated voters to the Ds predates the arrival of Trump- who added kerosene to it by driving up turnout. And this WILL
cause geographic issues for Ds in the future, in any scenario where D turnout recedes (say 2022 midterms and 2024 if a D POTUS is running for reelection) but not in 2020. In 2020, turnout is going to be massive in the suburbs and cities. Massive.
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thaddeus e. grugq
@thegrugq
That is a very cool exploit. 0click, RCE, logless, cross platform, and targeting a secure messaging platform. I’d love to know more about it.
If the WhatsApp exploit works without answering, then it must be in the signaling code, which would have a very small attack surface. So maybe calls include pushing contact info over (eg, display name, avatar, etc) and the bug is in that code (seems more likely)... any info yet?
Documentation is here: m.facebook.com/security/advis…

Bug in SRTCP tools.ietf.org/html/rfc3711

So it is in signaling, but I’d think you’d need to answer the call to do RTP. Unless WhatsApp doesn’t do a normal VOIP trapezoid.
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Putin's Clown Prince
@putinsclown
“Fascism is a form of radical, right-wing, authoritarian ultranationalism, characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and strong regimentation of society & of the economy, which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.” - WikiPedia @Wikipedia
⏰ FEAR? How are the @TheJusticeDept & @FBI dealing with all this? Everyone “just following orders"? Going along to get along? Is their allegiance to Trump, the @GOP, some ideology, or to the constitution? Are they powerless? Looking for excuses & pretexts to hide in the shadows?
⏰ IF #MUELLER AND HIS TEAM REMAIN SILENT, while their report is mischaracterized, used as propaganda, twisted into a #Barr #Rosenstein #Trump cover-up and whitewash... then how are they any different from Trump and Barr? SPEAK UP! @TheJusticeDept @FBI
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Jennifer Cohn
@jennycohn1
This progress is due to grassroots activism! As in GA, the concern is that corruption may have driven the choice of ES&S’s “Hybrid” barcode voting system.

One of 3 Philly Commissioners now “favors invalidating the city’s choice of voting machines...” 1/ philly.com/politics/phila…
2/ “Philadelphia City Commissioner Anthony Clark, who rarely says anything at board meetings and has a reputation for not showing up to work, suddenly spoke up Wednesday to say he favors invalidating the city’s choice of voting machines and restarting the selection process.”
3/ Wow! “His comments, which caught nearly everyone by surprise, were delivered almost casually during the commissioners’ weekly meeting, after City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart urged the elections officials to nullify the controversial selection of new systems.”
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Rachel Clarke
@doctor_oxford
Folks.

Do you want a #PeoplesVote?

This urgent amendment from 4 cross party MPs is the way to make happen.

Please sign and retweet. Make parliament know this is what you want. Make your voice heard.

Thank you so much.

#PeoplesVoteAmendment
chn.ge/2Psd43U
Four MPs who are doctors - @sarahwollaston @Dr_PhilippaW @DrPhillipLeeMP @PaulWilliamsMP - believe, like me, that consent for Brexit should be as informed as consent for a medical procedure. Based on facts, not spin. Reality, not rhetoric.
Here's my BMJ piece explaining why, as an NHS doctor, I'm campaigning for this urgent amendment:
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Annie Duke
@AnnieDuke
THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets
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Another Planet's Hell 🌊
@cravennewworld
Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
2/ Polls have two major aspects: Sample and Methodology. These are the parameters that define how the poll is taken and how accurately it reflects a population.
3/ Let's start with sample, also called sample size. It tells you how many people are polled to get the results. Most of the big polls you see in the news have a sample size somewhere around a thousand. This works for the pollsters, because it's a manageable
Read 24 tweets

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