Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Hard to think of any adverse incentives Bloomberg's advisers might have had to present him with polling showing other Democrats struggling in swing states.
Net favorability ratings (among all voters) from today's Monmouth poll would suggest it's *Bloomberg* who has the electability problem. bit.ly/38q0hVr

Bloomberg 26/54 (-28)
Sanders 41/54 (-13)
Warren: 40/50 (-10)
Biden 43/50 (-7)
Yang: 25/28 (-3)
Buttigeg: 34/35 (-1)
Ok granted, the numbers for the other Democrats aren't exactly stellar, though Buttigieg and Yang (!) are better than the others. But Bloomberg is really, really not what very many voters are looking for.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Nate Silver

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Klobuchar literally did exactly what I said she should do before the debate, so any time a candidate does that I'm going to count that as a strong evening. fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/demo…
Also, this was basically Biden's first gaffe-free debate, so I'm kind of curious how party elites will respond. He'd already gotten decent numbers of endorsements in the past several weeks. 53eig.ht/2SahhJz
None of that is to say that the other candidates were poor. I thought it was a sharp debate all around. I just think there's a little bit more uncertainty in how voters will react to say, Buttigieg, who was on the defensive a lot.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I mean... one thing that will *probably* be true is that people looking back on the 2020 election in hindsight will attribute more significance to impeachment than it actually had on the outcome.
I don't mean to suggest that impeachment will have *no* impact. But:

1) The effects will likely be hard to tease out;
2) Trump creates an awful lot of news so voters have a lot to weigh aside from impeachment;
3) It's not clear what baseline we're comparing against.
By 3) I mean it's not as though impeachment was some exogenous shock that came out of nowhere. Nobody should really be surprised by Trump's behavior. No one should be surprised that Republicans defended him. No one should be surprised that the D base pressured Pelosi to impeach.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
538 national polling average, with comparison to the average before the *previous* debate (Nov. 20)

Biden 27.0 (26.7)
Sanders 18.0 (16.1)
Warren 14.8 (19.7)
Buttigieg 8.8 (7.6)
Bloomberg 4.6 (2.7)
Yang 3.4 (2.6)
Klobuchar 2.8 (2.1)
Booker 2.0 (1.6)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
* It's been a good month for Sanders and Biden.
* If there's good news for Warren, it's that she's essentially unchanged over the past ~2 weeks; the decline came earlier.
* We have Buttigieg up from last month, but having fallen slightly from his peak (9.9%) 2-3 weeks sago.
* Klobuchar at her all time high as of this AM.
* Yang near his all-time high.
* You could take a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty view on Bloomberg, who shot up to ~4% within a week of formally entering the race but has been relatively flat since.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Per Lichtman Politics
@plpolitics
The #DemDebate starts on CNN and cnn.com in 30 minutes. Tonight is Debate 2 Night 1: Delaney, Williamson, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Ryan and (for the first time) Bullock - replacing Swalwell.
A lot of the press and pundits have expressed a lot of interest in two match-ups: Sanders vs. Warren and O’Rourke vs Buttigieg. Williamson is perceived to be doing her own thing and Bullock hasn’t been in these debates but the rest are perceived to compete for the centrist lane.
In the previous debate Klobuchar did much more poorly than I expected and Tim Ryan did better than expected, so I’ll be especially interested in how each of them perform - though moreso with an eye towards a VP slot than a POTUS one, unless polling changes.
Read 79 tweets
Profile picture
G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
1. For the second consecutive week, Elizabeth Warren is tied for 2nd in The Economist's weekly 2020 primary polling from YouGov. No significant changes from last week:

26% say Biden is their 1st choice
Warren: 14
Sanders: 13
Buttigieg: 9
Harris: 7

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…
2. Perhaps it is more significant that a larger share of Democratic primary voters are considering Warren than Sanders:

Biden: 52% considering voting for him
Warren: 45
Harris: 38
Sanders: 35
Buttigieg: 34
O'Rourke: 25
Booker: 20

In other words, her ceiling might be higher.
3. Warren's position really stands out when you divide the share considering each candidate by the share of Democratic primary voters who know who they are:

Biden: 55
Warren: 52
Buttigieg: 48
Harris: 47
Sanders: 37
O'Rourke: 32
Booker: 26
Castro: 20
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Friend or Foe?
@starknightz
1. #News ~ Joe Biden 1974: ‘Politicians Can Take Away’ First Amendment ‘If We Want’ breitbart.com/politics/2019/…

#Trump #Qanon @TRUMP2020 @realDonaldTrump
2. #News ~ Poll: Most Voters in Swing States Support Ending Chain Migration breitbart.com/politics/2019/…

#Trump #Qanon #ImmigrationReform
3. #News ~ TRUTH: President Donald Trump: Mexico is Doing More to Stop Migrant Crisis than Democrats @realDonaldTrump breitbart.com/politics/2019/…

#Trump #Qanon #MAGA #ImmigrationReform
Read 104 tweets
Profile picture
Friend or Foe?
@starknightz
1. #News ~ John Brennan Freaks After President Trump Orders Declassification, calling his move “outrageous… unprecedented.” thegatewaypundit.com/2019/05/john-b…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #Spygate #ReleaseDeclass #ItsHAPPENING #JusticeComing #SOON #ReleaseTheDOCS #TickTock #PANIC
2. #News ~ Exclusive – Pompeo: $8B Arms Sales to Middle East Allies ‘Appropriate and Necessary’ breitbart.com/politics/2019/…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
3. #News ~ Liberal Judge Blocks Mississippi ‘Heartbeat’ Abortion Law breitbart.com/politics/2019/…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
Read 106 tweets
Profile picture
Aaron Maté
@aaronjmate
Democrats & media partisans are creating the most pathetic political spectacle I can recall. They could've mounted a serious resistance to Trump by challenging his policies. Instead they ran with a conspiracy theory. When that failed, they invented a new one about a cover-up.
The Democratic Party leadership’s strategy since 2016 essentially boils down to blaming others for their own failures. They lost an election to Trump = Russia’s fault, possibly w/ Trump’s help. When Mueller -- their chosen savior -- rejects the conspiracy theory = Barr’s fault.
It must be exciting for Adam Schiff and Rachel Maddow to keep their audiences enrolled in their spy thriller fantasy, but how will all this look to independent and undecided voters in the key swing states?
Read 4 tweets

Trending hashtags

#polling #moderates #Vermont #Swamp #Wyoming #DemsWork4USA #EyesOnThePrize #Democrat #EnemyOfThePeople #NationalEmergency #Training #Minnesota #ThankYou #INTERESTING #NoConCon4Anything #AttemptedCoupWithForeignHelp #KevinBrady #KAGA #UnKochAmerica #Ω #RedPill #Bernie2020 #Mexican #Virginia #ElectionsMatter
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!