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Fascinating AGU talk by on the Global Methane Budget, the @gcarbonproject's expert assessment of methane sources and sinks. They explained why global methane concentrations have increased rapidly in recent years after a plateau, and the results were not what I was expecting! 1/4
They looked at changes in methane emissions between recent years (2013-2019) and the plateau period (2002-2006). They found effectively zero change in methane emissions from North America and Arctic. 2/3rds of the increase came from Southeast Asia, with 1/3rd from Africa/ME 3/4
About half the increase in emissions came from Agriculture and waste, with the remaining half coming from fossil fuels. However, they suggest that almost all this fossil fuel increase came from oil, gas, and coal production outside North America. 3/4
Their 2019 global methane budget will be out in early 2020, but an initial version can be found here: earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/essd-2019-128/ 4/4
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Its increasingly likely current policies and falling costs of clean energy lead to around 3C warming by 2100. This is a far cry from below-2C targets, but much better than 4C+ outcomes that appeared likely a decade ago. @jritch and I take a look @TheBTI: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
Two new reports – the IEA 2019 WEO and the UNEP Emissions Gap – both reflect current trends in clean energy costs and make the case that global emissions will only modestly increase over the next few decades. They project emissions at the low end of the IPCC baseline range. 2/16
This is largely due slower growth in coal use. IEA scenarios still project future growth in fossil fuel use through 2040, but around 0.5% per year compared to 1% and 3% for most SSP baseline scenarios. 3/16
Read 17 tweets
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
The remaining carbon budget left to limiting warming to 1.5C is so small that its effectively impossible at this point (~235 GtCO2 for a 66% chance of avoiding; 395 for a 50% chance). So how do we create plausible scenarios to limit warming to 1.5C? More negative emissions! 1/4
The amount of negative emissions ranges widely across 1.5C scenarios in the SSP database – from 400GtCO2 to 1,600GtCO2 (10-40 years of current emissions). The use of negative emissions effectively increases the size of the remaining carbon budget by between 100% and 400%. 2/4
So while carbon budgets can be a useful tool for communication, in the case of the 1.5C target they are not particularly useful for understanding mitigation pathways! 3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽'𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝗿 𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹

Despite promises to revitalize coal, both the rate of retirements and the decline in generation have been faster under Trump than under Obama. We dig into the details in @LaurenRAnders1 and my new @TheBTI article: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/… 1/8
The rate of coal retirements was higher during the first three years of the Trump administration than in either of the two Obama terms:

• First Obama term (2009-2012): 4.2 GW/yr
• Second Obama term: (2013-2016): 9.2 GW/yr
• First Trump term (2017-2019): 11.7 GW/yr
2/8
Coal generation declined faster in Trump's first three years than in Obama's second term, though the first Obama term – aided by the great recession – saw a larger drop:

• First Obama term: -118 TWh/yr
• Second Obama term: -69 TWh/yr
• First Trump term: -84 TWh/yr
3/8
Read 8 tweets

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action speaks louder
@tal_initiativen
2018: Ein Polizeipräsident tritt seinen neuen Job in einer sozial, religiös, kulturell und ethnisch sehr diversen westdeutschen Großstadt an. Sie ist in den Statistiken eine der „sichersten“ Städten Deutschlands. Der Name des Neuen: Markus #Röhrl. Die Stadt: #Wuppertal. (1)
Der Mann beginnt seinen neuen Job in der Stadt, von der niemand weiß, ob sie „trotz“ oder vielleicht „wegen“ ihrer Diversität als „sicher“ gilt, trotzdem mit der Ankündigung einer „Null Toleranz“-Politik in Bezug auf die Bevölkerung der Stadt. #Röhrl #Wuppertal (2)
Keine zwei Jahre sind vergangen. Die „Null Toleranz“-Politik hatte Ergebnisse: Inzwischen gibts in manchen Quartieren ein fast zerrüttetes Verhältnis zwischen Bevölkerung und Polizei, ein Klima ständiger Beobachtung oder auch Bedrohung hat sich eingestellt. #Röhrl #Wuppertal (3)
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Mika McKinnon
@mikamckinnon
Psst. Multilingual geotweeps: Did you see #AGU ED011 “Ciencia Para Todos: Increasing Access to the Geosciences through Multilingual Science Outreach”?

It’d be awesome to see something on Canadian bilingual geo conferences.
agu.confex.com/agu/fm19/preli…
My first-ever academic talk was in English with my slides en français (proofed by a francophone friend I bribed with wine).

Lots of animations of models, carefully tech-checked earlier in the day, times & over-rehearsed... so of COURSE we had a hiccup & I had to go slideless.
I sounded like a kindergartener stumbling through an inadequate technical vocabulary with atrocious grammar, but in retrospect it was my rite of passage into Canadian academia.

Les glissements de terrain!

Bilingual scicomm is impressive & terrifying.
Read 3 tweets
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Food Climate Research Network
@FCRNetwork
Agricultural methane and its role as a greenhouse gas - new Building Block by John Lynch of @oxfutureoffood explains how #methane and carbon dioxide affect the #climate differently and addresses some common areas of confusion. foodsource.org.uk/building-block…
Here are some key points from our new #methane explainer. Methane is a stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, molecule for molecule. Methane is an important greenhouse gas, second only to carbon dioxide in terms of its overall contribution to human-driven climate change.
44% of methane emissions from human activity are from agriculture. Of that 44%, roughly one third comes from enteric fermentation, i.e. the digestive processes of ruminant livestock.
Read 7 tweets
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Dr. Joseph Marcel Eboa
@DStartuper
THREAD : Comment sortir de la #Pauvreté 👀 avec un salaire minimum de 200.000 fcfa ?

NOTE : Si vous avez plus de 200.000 fcfa de revenus, vous pouvez devenir plus rapidement financièrement indépendant.
1/ Faites un diagnostic de votre santé financière en vous situant dans l'1 de ces catégories :
- Pauvre Chronique : dépensez plus que ce qui vous gagnez (vivez dans les dettes)
- Pauvre Équilibré : dépensez tout ce que vous gagnez
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- Pauvre Chronique : l'auto-satisfaction, la sur consommation.
- Pauvre Équilibré : la mauvaise gestion
- Pauvre Moyen : l'ignorance. L'épargne ne sert à rien, en réalité elle est une consommation future.
Read 12 tweets
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Leena📎🧝🏼‍♀️ Alv
@LeenaJohansson
Är du oroad över att demokrati och de mänskliga rättigheterna är i fara? Utveckling i världen och här hemma tyder på det. Du som vill göra något för att lyfta fram det viktiga med samtal om demokrati kan nu att agera. Läs tråden
röstamermänskligt.se
#röstamermänskligt
Alla goda röster behövs för att komma bort från den enkelspåriga retoriken där gruppers gälla mot varann.
#röstemermänskligt är en partipolitiskt och religiöst obunden grupp från skilda bakgrunder med en gemensam nämnare: ett mänskligt samhälle
Valkampanjen är öppen för alla. Du behöver inte vara expert. Det du kan göra är att sprida kunskap, informera och samtala om mänskliga rättigheter under #röstamermänskligt eller irl, på gator och torg, med dina bekanta och familjer.
Read 8 tweets
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Dr Michelle Cain
@civiltalker
I think the time has come to attempt a thread to explain our GWP* paper. I sense it's going to be long, as the topic is more suited to a 45-min seminar (30 at a push)... If you are keen on #methane and what the Paris Agreement means, this is for you. Otherwise, scroll on! 0/n
#Thread on our new paper about how you can think about tradeoffs between #methane (or other greenhouse gases) and CO2 for the Paris Agreement. The paper is here (free): go.nature.com/2xJFY7d 1/n
CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, so that is the most important gas to stop emitting to limit warming. We have to take it out of the air if we want to reduce the amount in the atmosphere without waiting 1000s of years. 2/n
Read 19 tweets

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