Thread by @hausfath

𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽'𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝗿 𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹

Despite promises to revitalize coal, both the rate of retirements and the decline in generation have been faster under Trump than under Obama. We dig into the details in @LaurenRAnders1 and my new @TheBTI article: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/… 1/8

The rate of coal retirements was higher during the first three years of the Trump administration than in either of the two Obama terms:

• First Obama term (2009-2012): 4.2 GW/yr
• Second Obama term: (2013-2016): 9.2 GW/yr
• First Trump term (2017-2019): 11.7 GW/yr
2/8

Coal generation declined faster in Trump's first three years than in Obama's second term, though the first Obama term – aided by the great recession – saw a larger drop:

• First Obama term: -118 TWh/yr
• Second Obama term: -69 TWh/yr
• First Trump term: -84 TWh/yr
3/8

Trump-era coal retirements accelerated despite roll-backs of 85 Obama-era environmental regulations and the Clean Power Plan. They occurred mostly in red states like Alabama, Kentucky, Texas, Tennessee, and West Virginia, which have relatively lax emissions rules. 4/8

Far from saving coal, Trump has instead overseen the accelerating decline of the industry he promised to protect. His failure underlines the fact that coal simply cannot compete with alternatives in the market today, even in the absence of burdensome regulations. 5/8

Rapid declines in the cost of natural gas, wind, and solar – driven by decades of government and private sector R&D investment – have made cleaner alternatives the most cost-effective option in much of the country. 6/8

Climate policy must be robust to the ever-swinging pendulum of the US political system. The story of American coal points to the need for policies that support the research, development, and deployment of clean energy technologies to reduce emissions. 7/8

Coal’s downward march was not primarily driven by Obama’s environmental regulations, and thus has been largely impervious to Trump’s efforts to repeal them. 8/8