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Yep, holding steady, as is their turnout- which is a BIG difference between Rs and Ds. In '18 my modeling anticipated at least a small drop in turnout from Rs, given they controlled everything. Similar conditions for Ds in 2010 led to a turnout collapse! Although proportionally,
turnout surges for Ds & D-voting Indies were much larger in '18, for Rs, turnout went up, NOT down, in '18. I expect the same thing to happen in 2020. Certainly no evidence of a deflated, disaffected constituency. Instead it is one that is in a full court press to maintain power.
I'll have some great data and analysis on this topic out this spring
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
Been working on some graphs for our annual @WasonCenter State of the Commonwealth Survey, out today. 55% of voters approve of the results of the election, which had Democrats gain control of both chambers of the state's General Assembly. And the poll finds they support a host of
proposals being advanced by the new Dem majority that had long been held at bay by Rer control of the legislature on issues ranging from gun control measures, automatic voter registration, to minimum wage, to marijuana decriminalization. ERA ratification enjoys widepread support.
Robust support for expanding background checks on guns to include all gun sales (currently private sales, including gun show sales are exempt) & "red flag" laws. While still majority, assault weapons ban is more contentious (54% support). Expanded concealed carry deeply unpopular
Read 7 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
Fascinating. NJ-2, at R+1 was a prime target for Ds to flip in 2018. By conventional standards used by the parties, probably on their top 10 list. By my model, still a "flipper" but harder due to its comparatively low rates of college educ (32%).
But ostensibly, a party switch by @VanDrewForNJ would be motivated by the thought that it would help his chances of staying in Congress. I'm not so sure about that. Not so sure at all. After all, the fundamentals there favor the party (D) not the person. Similar dynamic in CA 25
where Ds will find replacing @KatieHill4CA will be fairly easy-as the flip there was a product of the district demographics and national atmosphere (negative partisanship) & less about individual candidates.
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
One thing to keep in mind about these 2018 freshman Democrats serving in "Trump districts.

After the 2020 cycle, most, if not all, of them will be serving in districts that break in favor of the Dem nominee.

These are realigning districts- moving to the left.
The no votes will come from the very few Ds like Collin Peterson, who are serving in districts realigning the other way (rural districts moving to the right). like vote for them. In '18 there only 23 of the districts were carried by HRC, the rest were Trump districts, yes.
But what this "hides" is that for many of these districts, it was due to significant electoral underperformance by HRC. And although the non-retiring Rs in the districts on this list don't realize it now, this is gonna be an Obamacare-like vote for them. cnu.edu/wasoncenter/20…
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Related threads

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Kevin Alcock
@kevina364
2019 GENERAL ELECTION FINAL THOUGHTS & WRAP UP THREAD

So an histroic General Election is at an end with a big Conservative majority and the Corbynite project, as well as the pro EU project of the Lib Dems & those advocating tactical voting in ruins.
This is a look back at the campaign, the polling, the numbers, the result hopefully informed by my watching of the numbers throughout.
2019 GENERAL ELECTION RESULT (Seats)

Con 365 (+47)
Lab 203 (-59)
SNP 48 (+13)
LD 11 (-1)
DUP 8 (-2)
SF 7 (NC)
Plaid Cymru 4 (NC)
SDLP 2 (+2)
Green 1 (NC)
NI Alliance 1 (+1)

Con OM of 80 (Working OM of 87)
Read 63 tweets
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Simon Rosenberg
@SimonWDC
1/Ds should make very clear that if the Rs call Hunter Biden at the Senate trial, they will convene House hearings on nepotism and familial leveraging of power for personal gain. They can subpoena Trump/Kushner business records and demand they testify in public.
2/And of course the big difference between what Hunter Biden did and what Ivanka/Jared have done is that Hunter was a private citizen, conducting private business. The Kushners are enriching themselves while serving in government, an unprecedented event in US history,
3/Kushner's wrong doing is Olympian in scale, as no other WH staffer would have survived what he's done, and it just goes on and on - lying on his security forms, gaming of clearance system, violation of official records act, self-enrichment, etc. Dirty dirty princeling.
Read 3 tweets
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Glenn Beck
@glennbeck
1/ There are two terms that kept popping up in our research of what was happening between the Left and Ukraine, and they’re used interchangeably.
2/ You see them in government documents, aid packages and even by activists rioting in the streets. They are: “Civil Society” and “Open Society”.
3/ These two phrases are used by a global Shadow Government to mold the rest of the world into a Socialist theme park. And it’s all being done in YOUR NAME, but... WITHOUT your consent or vote.
Read 45 tweets
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Josh Kraushaar
@HotlineJosh
Big difference between criticizing Israel's policies and arguing against Israel's *right to exist*.
Most of Goldberg's argument is that Israel is turning illiberal and right-wing, and it's not anti-Semitic to criticize the Netanyahu government policies. Which isn't anti-Semitism.

What she glosses over is the argument against the Jewish state itself.
Is Rep.-elect Tlaib's comment: "Israel has hypnotized the world, may Allah awaken the people and help them see the evils of Israel" anti-Semitic?
jewishjournal.com/news/nation/23…

Or L Hill's invocation of classical anti-Semitic rhetoric a problem for Goldberg?
jewishjournal.com/news/nation/24…
Read 6 tweets
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Alastair Thompson
@althecat
Everything about this @ABC news report is fishy. It was rushed into publication on Friday Night shortly after the #Unity4J vigil was started. The video in the header is more than a year old & only today did they add the audio of the IV with Assange's lawyer. /1
The story itself is full of blatant misinformation which might as well have been written by the CIA or State Dept, the rebuttal from Assange's lawyer - filmed last week - was added today to the already published story so clumsily that it breaks the layout. /2
Two video tweets have been added, the one above and this one, which has been tweeted three times. /3
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