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One thing to keep in mind about these 2018 freshman Democrats serving in "Trump districts.

After the 2020 cycle, most, if not all, of them will be serving in districts that break in favor of the Dem nominee.

These are realigning districts- moving to the left.
The no votes will come from the very few Ds like Collin Peterson, who are serving in districts realigning the other way (rural districts moving to the right). like vote for them. In '18 there only 23 of the districts were carried by HRC, the rest were Trump districts, yes.
But what this "hides" is that for many of these districts, it was due to significant electoral underperformance by HRC. And although the non-retiring Rs in the districts on this list don't realize it now, this is gonna be an Obamacare-like vote for them. cnu.edu/wasoncenter/20…
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
The fundamentals of 2020 are baked in. Once Trump is acquitted the narrative will switch to how upset everyone else is, as they watch the senate rubber stamp his illegal behavior. Despite that being an expected outcome, a good chunk of the country still expects evidence to matter
Indeed, even within the Senate, Senate Dems believe that at least some of their Republican counterparts can't help but deal with the facts at hand, and the compelling evidence of wrongdoing. At least from what I hear. They expect genuine consideration of these charges. I expect
that the acquittal is still going to shock the psyche. And it is going to further embolden Trump and his enablers. The acquittal won't change the facts, and the facts are damning.
Read 3 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
As my buddy @drsfarnsworth points out:

"The people who support Trump were not going to be voting for Spanberger or Luria"

Voting no, on the other hand, now THAT would have been politically disastrous for these members in the realigning districts.
Colin Peterson, whose district broke for Trump by 30 pts and is R+12, is operating in a different political reality. Its a damn miracle he held onto his seat in '18. He's probably doomed in '20. He has to vote no, but the fact is, few, if any, Trump voters will end up thanking
him with their vote. They'll be voting for the GOP's nominee bc they want to flip the seat (which is realigning the other way-towards the Rs). And although many of his D constituents will understand his predicament and forgive him for the "no" vote, a great many will not. He will
Read 5 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
And there is one thing that unites them above all else: an overwhelmingly dislike of Donald J. Trump, & by extension, the party he represents. Which is why I said/say, when it comes to the 2016 election, the GOP won the battle, but lost the war with Trump's takeover of the party.
Between them, there are 160 million Millennials & Gen Zs. They are the least white, most (policy) liberal generation in our country's history. And in my upcoming voter file analysis in @newrepublic I'll show Gen Z increased their turnout, on average, by 500%. They will be pivotal
in D gains in the House and Senate in '20 and in Trump's loss. But what is more important, I think, is their potential long-term impact. BC their interest may wane again once Trump is gone. But like those that came before them, eventually, they will age into participation & will
Read 4 tweets

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Susan Hennessey
@Susan_Hennessey
One thing to keep in mind is that when the House voted on the formal impeachment inquiry into Clinton, the Starr report had already been delivered and all fact-finding was complete. So it's very hard to compare apples and oranges in terms of the appropriate timing now.
I don't know that this means there isn't ever an appropriate point to hold a vote. When the final referral moves to House Judiciary is probably the closest match to Clinton timing. That said, there are both pro and cons to the choice to delay for now.
The fact that Pelosi isn't holding a vote now is probably an indication she isn't going to try to appease bad faith process arguments. That's a reasonable strategy, but Republicans will certainly try to take shelter in process objections without having to endorse what Trump did.
Read 3 tweets
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Clara Jeffery
@ClaraJeffery
Hello, nobody knows if quick or long impeachment process would be better toward either possible removal or better 2020 results, though you should digest both.
Nobody knows if the lessons of past impeachment’s would apply to this one.

Nobody knows when or if a damn could break on bipartisan support.

The only thing we do know is that things look very different than a week ago.
The one thing to keep in mind is the marketplace for strident opinions is just that. With often perverse incentives across the politcal spectrum.

Also you’ll notice that those who claim surety are usually men. Who god knows, are always right 🙄.
Read 3 tweets
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Armond Ray Erickson
@ArmonRaE
One viral image being shared on social media used a bit of reverse psychology, asking what Americans would think if the details of this story involved the #tRump family rather than the #Biden family. #GreatWhiteHunter
politifact.com/truth-o-meter/…
A viral image being shared on social media uses reverse psychology, asking what Americans would think if the details of this story involved the #tRump family with its #GreatWhiteHunter sons rather than the #Biden family with its "great white" son, Hunter.
politifact.com/truth-o-meter/…
#HunterBiden was a senior VP for financial services giant #MBNA — an arrangement that drew criticism during the 2008 elections for potential conflict of interests.
As senator, #JoeBiden spearheaded legislation that would have affected MBNA’s business. cnbc.com/2014/05/13/bid… #DNC
Read 76 tweets
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Nick Carmody JD, MS Psych
@Nick_Carmody
@documentaryfund @drdredel @tammyleitzel @MatthewFeyen Good question. One I think about often without coming to a concrete answer. Typically "no contact" is often the only way to avoid their toxicity, but as anyone who shares custody of a child with a Cluster B disordered parent knows, that's not realistic. 1/
@documentaryfund @drdredel @tammyleitzel @MatthewFeyen Consequently you keep getting sucked into their pathology because they have so much influence and access to something you cherish…..your children. 2/
@documentaryfund @drdredel @tammyleitzel @MatthewFeyen Well, metaphorically speaking, our democracy is the child that we are desperately trying save from Trump’s disorders. And obviously, the no contact rule is inapplicable when the toxicity emanates from the most powerful person on the planet, who can’t simply be ignored. 3/
Read 23 tweets
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Hugh Halpern
@HughsRules
1/ This seems to be a perennial fight for Democrats in the majority. They want to talk a good game about how they can run a more open House, but when Republicans get good at using their limited procedural tools, they change course.
2/ A little bit of history about the motion to recommit (MTR). Before 1995, there was no requirement that the majority allow the minority to offer a MTR. The Dem majority would routinely deny Republicans the ability to offer MTRs at all.
3/ In 1995, in what was an actual lasting reform, Republicans actually guaranteed the minority the right to offer an MTR on bills in the House. I am unaware of any time the Rep majority denied a MTR to the Dem minority on a bill.
Read 11 tweets
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Matt Glassman
@MattGlassman312
One thing I keep thinking about re: potential impeachment is that a Trump is in his first term. Seems like this will have a large effect on the politics. 1/
Clinton, Nixon, & Johnson were all lame ducks. Nixon and Clinton were barred by the 22nd amendment; Johnson—essentially a War Democrat put on the ticket for balance in 1864—had literally no chance of being nominated by the GOP in 1868. Trump, OTOH, is the presumptive GOP nominee.
This raises a serious question: as a purely political matter, would the Dems really want to remove a POTUS who, conditional on having the votes to remove, would be an absolute disaster candidate in ‘20?
Read 8 tweets

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